Misuse Potential

No page data found for "misuse-potential"

{
  "id": "misuse-potential",
  "type": "ai-transition-model-factor",
  "title": "Misuse Potential",
  "description": "The aggregate risk from deliberate harmful use of AI—including biological weapons, cyber attacks, autonomous weapons, and surveillance misuse.",
  "tags": [
    "ai-transition-model",
    "factor",
    "misuse",
    "weapons"
  ],
  "relatedEntries": [
    {
      "id": "existential-catastrophe",
      "type": "ai-transition-model-scenario",
      "relationship": "drives"
    },
    {
      "id": "human-catastrophe",
      "type": "ai-transition-model-scenario",
      "relationship": "enables"
    },
    {
      "id": "biological-threat-exposure",
      "type": "ai-transition-model-parameter",
      "relationship": "composed-of"
    },
    {
      "id": "cyber-threat-exposure",
      "type": "ai-transition-model-parameter",
      "relationship": "composed-of"
    },
    {
      "id": "racing-intensity",
      "type": "ai-transition-model-parameter",
      "relationship": "composed-of"
    },
    {
      "id": "ai-control-concentration",
      "type": "ai-transition-model-parameter",
      "relationship": "composed-of"
    }
  ],
  "sources": [],
  "lastUpdated": "2026-01",
  "customFields": [
    {
      "label": "Model Role",
      "value": "Root Factor (AI System)"
    },
    {
      "label": "Key Parameters",
      "value": "Biological Threat Exposure, Cyber Threat Exposure, Racing Intensity"
    },
    {
      "label": "Primary Outcome",
      "value": "Existential Catastrophe"
    }
  ]
}

No facts for this entity

No external links

{
  "numericId": "E666",
  "title": "Misuse Potential",
  "description": "Root factor measuring the risk of AI being weaponized or exploited by malicious actors. Primary driver of Human-Caused Catastrophe scenarios.",
  "sidebar": {
    "label": "Overview",
    "order": 0
  },
  "lastEdited": "2026-01-03",
  "subcategory": "factors-misuse-potential"
}

---
numericId: E666
title: Misuse Potential
description: Root factor measuring the risk of AI being weaponized or exploited by malicious actors. Primary driver of Human-Caused Catastrophe scenarios.
sidebar:
  label: Overview
  order: 0
lastEdited: "2026-01-03"
subcategory: factors-misuse-potential
---
import {DataInfoBox, FactorSubItemsList, FactorRelationshipDiagram, ImpactList, PageCauseEffectGraph, EntityLink} from '@components/wiki';

<DataInfoBox entityId="E207" />

Misuse Potential measures the likelihood and severity of AI being weaponized or exploited by malicious actors. Unlike <EntityLink id="E665">Misalignment Potential</EntityLink> (which measures unintended AI behavior), Misuse Potential measures intentional harmful use by humans.

**Primary outcome affected:** <EntityLink id="E130">Existential Catastrophe</EntityLink> ↑↑↑

High misuse potential means more vectors for catastrophe even if AI systems are well-aligned. These threats can overwhelm defenses, trigger cascading failures, or exploit concentrated power.

---

## Component Parameters

<FactorRelationshipDiagram nodeId="misuse-potential" direction="outgoing" showSubItems={true} />

<FactorSubItemsList factorId="misuse-potential" />

---

## Internal Dynamics

These threats compound each other:

- **Concentration amplifies impact**: When control is concentrated, single failures affect everyone
- **Bio and cyber interact**: Same AI capabilities that enable one often enable the other
- **Threat success breeds threat**: Successful attacks demonstrate viability and attract more actors

This creates **threat escalation dynamics**—each incident makes the next more likely.

---

## How This Affects Scenarios

<ImpactList nodeId="misuse-potential" direction="from" />

---

## Relationship to Misalignment Potential

Misuse Potential and <EntityLink id="E665">Misalignment Potential</EntityLink> are complementary risk factors:

| Factor | Misalignment Potential | Misuse Potential |
|--------|----------------------|------------------|
| Source | AI behavior | Human actors |
| Direction | AI pursues unintended goals | Humans weaponize AI |
| Focus | Technical alignment | Access controls & defense |
| Improvability | Research & investment | Harder to reduce |

**Both matter**: Either can cause existential catastrophe independently. High misalignment potential means AI might cause harm on its own; high misuse potential means humans will use AI to cause harm.

---

## Why Concentration Matters

<EntityLink id="E7">AI Control Concentration</EntityLink> is unique because its effect **depends on who controls**:
- If control concentrates in **safety-conscious actors**: May reduce risk
- If control concentrates in **reckless or malicious actors**: Dramatically increases risk
- In either case: **Reduces resilience** to bad actors gaining control

This makes concentration a key uncertainty in existential catastrophe assessment.