QURI (Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute)

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Organization Details

Overview

The Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI) is a nonprofit research organization focused on developing tools and methodologies for probabilistic reasoning and forecasting. Founded in 2019 by Ozzie Gooen, QURI aims to make uncertainty quantification more accessible and rigorous, particularly for decisions affecting the long-term future of humanity. The organization evolved from Gooen's earlier work on Guesstimate, a spreadsheet tool for Monte Carlo simulations that QURI formally acquired in 2023.

QURI's flagship project is SquiggleProjectSquiggleSquiggle is a domain-specific probabilistic programming language optimized for intuition-driven estimation rather than data-driven inference, developed by QURI and adopted primarily in the EA commu...Quality: 41/100, a domain-specific programming language designed for probabilistic estimation. Unlike general-purpose languages, Squiggle provides first-class support for probability distributions, enabling analysts to express complex uncertainties naturally. QURI's experience building these tools revealed a significant challenge: even highly skilled domain experts frequently struggle with basic programming requirements and often make errors in their probabilistic models—motivating the development of SquiggleAIProjectSquiggleAISquiggleAI is an LLM tool (primarily Claude Sonnet 4.5) that generates probabilistic Squiggle models from natural language, using ~20K tokens of cached documentation to produce 100-500 line models ...Quality: 37/100.

The organization has expanded beyond Squiggle to encompass a suite of epistemic tools: Squiggle Hub for collaborative model sharing, MetaforecastProjectMetaforecastMetaforecast is a forecast aggregation platform combining 2,100+ questions from 10+ sources (Metaculus, Manifold, Polymarket, etc.) with daily updates via automated scraping. Created by QURI, it pr...Quality: 35/100 for aggregating predictions across platforms, SquiggleAI for LLM-assisted model generation, and RoastMyPostProjectRoastMyPostRoastMyPost is an LLM tool (Claude Sonnet 4.5 + Perplexity) that evaluates written content through multiple specialized AI agents—fact-checking, logical fallacy detection, math verification, and mo...Quality: 35/100 for AI-powered blog post evaluation.

Founder: Ozzie Gooen

Ozzie Gooen is the founder and Executive Director of QURI, with a background spanning engineering, effective altruism, and forecasting research.

Gooen discovered effective altruism in college. His path from engineering to forecasting research reflects a consistent interest in applying quantitative methods to important decisions. At FHI, he focused on forecasting infrastructure, exploring how prediction marketsApproachPrediction Markets (AI Forecasting)Prediction markets achieve Brier scores of 0.16-0.24 (15-25% better than polls) by aggregating dispersed information through financial incentives, with platforms handling $1-3B annually. For AI saf...Quality: 56/100 and aggregation methods could improve institutional decision-making.

Beyond QURI, Gooen has contributed to discussions on AI governance, forecasting methodology, and quantitative cause prioritization through extensive writing on the EA Forum and LessWrong.

Core Projects

flowchart TD
  QURI[QURI] --> SQUIGGLE[Squiggle Language]
  QURI --> HUB[Squiggle Hub]
  QURI --> META[Metaforecast]
  QURI --> TOOLS[Additional Tools]

  SQUIGGLE --> LANG[Language Core]
  SQUIGGLE --> AI[SquiggleAI]
  SQUIGGLE --> PLAY[Playground]

  HUB --> SHARE[Model Sharing]
  HUB --> COLLAB[Collaboration]

  META --> AGG[Forecast Aggregation]
  META --> PLATFORMS[Platform Integration]

  TOOLS --> ROAST[RoastMyPost]
  TOOLS --> FERMI[Fermi Competition]

  style QURI fill:#e6f3ff
  style SQUIGGLE fill:#ccffcc
  style HUB fill:#ccffcc
  style META fill:#ffffcc

Squiggle Language

SquiggleProjectSquiggleSquiggle is a domain-specific probabilistic programming language optimized for intuition-driven estimation rather than data-driven inference, developed by QURI and adopted primarily in the EA commu...Quality: 41/100 is QURI's primary project—a domain-specific programming language for probabilistic estimation that runs in the browser via JavaScript. It provides native support for probability distributions, distribution algebra, and multiple parameterization options. The intuitive 1 to 10 syntax creates lognormal distributions from percentile estimates, making it natural for Fermi estimation and cost-effectiveness analysis.

Key capabilities include functions with domain constraints, three distribution representations (Sample Set, Point Set, Symbolic), and Monte Carlo sampling. The latest release (0.10.0, January 2025) added compile-time type inference, Web Worker execution, and experimental unit type annotations.

For full details on syntax, features, code examples, and version history, see the Squiggle page.

SquiggleAI

SquiggleAIProjectSquiggleAISquiggleAI is an LLM tool (primarily Claude Sonnet 4.5) that generates probabilistic Squiggle models from natural language, using ~20K tokens of cached documentation to produce 100-500 line models ...Quality: 37/100 integrates large language models to assist with probabilistic model creation, addressing the challenge that domain experts frequently struggle with programming requirements for probabilistic modeling. It currently uses Claude Sonnet 3.5 with prompt caching (~20,000 tokens of Squiggle language information), producing models typically 100-500 lines long at a cost of $0.002-$0.02 per query.

For details on model support, capabilities, and integration with Squiggle Hub, see the SquiggleAI page.

Squiggle Hub

Squiggle Hub is a platform for creating, sharing, and collaborating on Squiggle models, announced in 2024. It provides model hosting (public or private), git-like versioning, imports/exports for multi-model projects, and direct SquiggleAI integration. The platform also hosts 17,000+ public models from Guesstimate, Gooen's earlier Monte Carlo spreadsheet tool.

Metaforecast

MetaforecastProjectMetaforecastMetaforecast is a forecast aggregation platform combining 2,100+ questions from 10+ sources (Metaculus, Manifold, Polymarket, etc.) with daily updates via automated scraping. Created by QURI, it pr...Quality: 35/100 aggregates forecasts from 18 prediction platforms (Metaculus, Manifold, Polymarket, Good Judgment Open, Kalshi, and others) into a single searchable interface. The initial version was created by Nuño Sempere with help from Ozzie Gooen. As of 2025, QURI has noted they are not currently maintaining Metaforecast but hope to resume in the future; the site remains operational with existing data.

For full details on platforms aggregated, features, and integrations, see the Metaforecast page.

RoastMyPost

RoastMyPostProjectRoastMyPostRoastMyPost is an LLM tool (Claude Sonnet 4.5 + Perplexity) that evaluates written content through multiple specialized AI agents—fact-checking, logical fallacy detection, math verification, and mo...Quality: 35/100 uses LLMs and code to evaluate blog posts and research documents, offering evaluators for fact-checking, spell-checking, fallacy detection, math verification, and link validation. It was announced as a tool for improving writing quality in the EA and rationalist communities.

For full details, see the RoastMyPost page.

Fermi Competition

QURI runs periodic Fermi Model Competitions ($300 prizes) to encourage creative Fermi estimation using AI tools. Evaluation weights surprise (40%), topic relevance (20%), robustness (20%), and other factors (20%). The competitions explicitly encourage novel approaches over exhaustively researched calculations.

Funding and Organization

Funding History

The Future Fund's 2022 grant was affected by the FTX collapse, which eliminated potential future funding from that source. QURI has since relied on LTFF and individual donors.

Organizational Structure

QURI works with Rethink Priorities under their Special Projects Program, which provides fiscal sponsorship, tax-exempt status, financial administration, and operational infrastructure. This allows QURI to focus on tool development while RP handles administrative overhead.

Research Collaborations

Arb Research Collaboration

QURI collaborated with Arb Research on the 2025 technical AI safety review, building the interactive shallowreview.ai website—"a shallow-by-design review of technical AI safety research in 2025: 800+ papers and posts across 80+ research agendas." The project was funded by Coefficient Giving.

GiveWell Cost-Effectiveness Quantification

Multiple projects have used Squiggle to add uncertainty quantification to GiveWell's cost-effectiveness analyses:

Comparison with Similar Tools

Use Squiggle for intuition-driven estimation without much data, rapid prototyping, and web-based sharing. Use Stan/PyMC when you have data and need Bayesian inference. Use Guesstimate when a spreadsheet interface is preferred.

Timeline

Strengths and Limitations

Strengths

• Purpose-built tools: Each product addresses specific epistemic needs
• Accessible: Browser-based, no installation needed
• Open Source: All code MIT licensed, community contributions welcome
• AI Integration: SquiggleAI and RoastMyPost leverage frontier LLMs
• Ecosystem approach: Tools work together (Squiggle + Hub + AI + Metaforecast)

Limitations

• Niche adoption: Limited use outside EA/rationalist communities
• Small team: Core team size limits development velocity
• Funding dependency: Reliant on EA-adjacent funders (SFF, LTFF)
• Ecosystem size: Fewer libraries than general-purpose languages

Sources and Citations

Primary Sources

• QURI Official Website
• QURI About Page
• QURI Team Page
• Ozzie Gooen EA Forum Profile

EA Forum Posts

• Introducing Squiggle: Early Access
• Introducing SquiggleAI
• Announcing RoastMyPost
• Introducing Metaforecast
• $300 Fermi Model Competition
• GiveWell CEA Quantification

Funding and Organization

• Survival and Flourishing Fund
• QURI Charity Navigator Profile
• Rethink Priorities Special Projects

External Links

• QURI Website
• Squiggle Language
• Squiggle Hub
• Metaforecast
• RoastMyPost
• GitHub Organization
• QURI Substack
• EA Forum Topic
• QURI Donate Page