Anthropic (Funder)

Quick Assessment

Overview

AnthropicOrganizationAnthropicComprehensive profile of Anthropic, founded in 2021 by seven former OpenAI researchers (Dario and Daniela Amodei, Chris Olah, Tom Brown, Jack Clark, Jared Kaplan, Sam McCandlish) with early funding...'s rapid valuation growth—from $550 million in May 2021 to $380 billion$380 billionAs of: 2026-02Series G post-money valuation, February 2026anthropic.valuation by February 2026 (Series G)—has created what may become the largest single source of longtermist philanthropic capital in history. Anthropic EA-aligned equity spans multiple sources: all seven co-founders have pledged to donate 80% of their equity ($43-64B at current valuation, though only 2 of 7 have documented strong EA connections), early investors Jaan TallinnPersonJaan TallinnComprehensive profile of Jaan Tallinn documenting $150M+ lifetime AI safety giving (86% of $51M in 2024), primarily through SFF ($34.33M distributed in 2025). Co-founded CSER (2012) and FLI (2014),...Quality: 53/100 ($2-6B conservative estimate) and Dustin MoskovitzPersonDustin Moskovitz (AI Safety Funder)Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna have given $4B+ since 2011, with ~$336M (12% of total) directed to AI safety through Coefficient Giving, making them the largest individual AI safety funders globally...Quality: 49/100 ($3-9B) hold substantial stakes, and early employees transferred billions to donor-advised funds under Anthropic's historical 3:1 matching program (now reduced to 1:1 at 25% for new hires). Fortune

Total EA-aligned capital at current valuations ranges from $33-172B gross (conservative to optimistic), with a risk-adjusted expected value of $27-76B—the wide range reflecting genuine uncertainty about founder cause allocation (only 2 of 7 have documented strong EA connections). An estimated $20-40B is already legally bound in DAFs through the employee matching program—though DAF donors retain discretion over which charities receive grants, and the matching program has been reduced from 3:1 at 50% to 1:1 at 25% for new employees. IPS

This page provides comprehensive analysis of all EA-aligned capital sources at Anthropic, models funding flows under different scenarios, and assesses when this capital will reach effective causes.

Funding History

Anthropic has raised over $67 billion, including the $30 billion Series G closed in February 2026. Anthropic Tracxn

Complete Funding Timeline

Early Rounds: EA-Dominated (2021-2022)

Anthropic's founding capital came primarily from EA-connected investors who prioritized AI safety:

Jaan TallinnPersonJaan TallinnComprehensive profile of Jaan Tallinn documenting $150M+ lifetime AI safety giving (86% of $51M in 2024), primarily through SFF ($34.33M distributed in 2025). Co-founded CSER (2012) and FLI (2014),...Quality: 53/100 led the Series A at a $550 million pre-money valuation. Anthropic Tallinn, co-founder of Skype and Kazaa, has become one of EA's most significant funders, having "poured millions into effective altruism-linked nonprofits and AI startups." Semafor

Dustin Moskovitz, co-founder of Facebook and funder of Coefficient GivingOrganizationCoefficient GivingCoefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy) has directed $4B+ in grants since 2014, including $336M to AI safety (~60% of external funding). The organization spent ~$50M on AI safety in 2024, w...Quality: 55/100 (formerly Coefficient GivingOrganizationOpen PhilanthropyOpen Philanthropy rebranded to Coefficient Giving in November 2025. See the Coefficient Giving page for current information.), participated in both seed and Series A rounds. Through Good Ventures, Moskovitz later moved a $500 million Anthropic stake into a nonprofit vehicle to reinvest returns. Fortune

Other early investors included Eric Schmidt (former Google CEO), James McClave, and the Center for Emerging Risk Research.

Strategic Tech Investments (2023-2025)

Later rounds shifted to massive strategic capital from technology giants:

Google: Invested approximately $3.3 billion total:

• $300 million in late 2022 for 10% stake
• $2 billion in October 2023
• $1 billion in early 2025
• Now owns approximately 14% of Anthropic Verdict

Amazon: Invested $10.75 billion total across three rounds:

• $4 billion in September 2023
• $2.75 billion in March 2024
• $4 billion in November 2024
• AWS became Anthropic's "primary cloud and training partner"
• Remains minority investor without board seat

Institutional Investors (Series F)

The September 2025 Series F brought diversified institutional capital: Anthropic

• Sovereign wealth funds: Qatar Investment Authority, GIC (Singapore)
• Pension funds: Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan
• Asset managers: BlackRock, T. Rowe Price, Goldman Sachs Alternatives
• Growth equity: Altimeter, General Catalyst, General Atlantic, TPG, Insight Partners
• Trading firms: Jane Street
• Investment managers: Baillie Gifford, Coatue, D1 Capital Partners, WCM Investment Management

Microsoft and Nvidia Partnership (November 2025)

In November 2025, Microsoft and Nvidia announced a strategic partnership with Anthropic involving up to $15 billion in investment: CNBC

Investment commitments:

• Microsoft: up to $5 billion
• Nvidia: up to $10 billion

Cloud infrastructure:

• Anthropic committed to purchasing $30 billion in Azure compute capacity from Microsoft
• Contracted for up to 1 gigawatt of compute capacity (estimated $20-25 billion cost)
• Amazon remains primary cloud provider and training partner

Technology partnership:

• First deep technology partnership between Nvidia and Anthropic
• Joint optimization of Anthropic models for Nvidia architectures (Grace Blackwell, Vera Rubin)
• Claude models available on all three major cloud services (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud)

This deal represented Microsoft's effort to diversify away from exclusive reliance on OpenAI for AI capabilities. Anthropic

Secondary Market Activity

Anthropic shares trade actively on secondary markets with significant price variation: Premier Alternatives

The Forge price represents a 381% increase over the prior year. Forge Global Anthropic conducted its first employee share buyback in March 2025 at $56.09/share ($61.5B valuation), allowing employees with 2+ years tenure to sell up to 20% of equity, capped at $2 million each. Maginative

For detailed analysis of Anthropic's competitive position, talent moat, and potential undervaluation, see AnthropicOrganizationAnthropicComprehensive profile of Anthropic, founded in 2021 by seven former OpenAI researchers (Dario and Daniela Amodei, Chris Olah, Tom Brown, Jack Clark, Jared Kaplan, Sam McCandlish) with early funding.... For comprehensive bull and bear case arguments, see Anthropic Valuation AnalysisAnalysisAnthropic Valuation AnalysisValuation analysis updated for Series G (Feb 2026). Anthropic raised $30B at $380B post-money with $14B run-rate revenue, yielding ~27x multiple—now closer to OpenAI's 25x at $500B/$20B. Bull case ...Quality: 72/100. For IPO timeline and extended growth scenarios (2-10x to $700B-$3.5T), see Anthropic IPOAnalysisAnthropic IPOAnthropic is actively preparing for a potential 2026 IPO with concrete steps like hiring Wilson Sonsini and conducting bank discussions, though timeline uncertainty remains with prediction markets ...Quality: 65/100.

Founder Equity and Donation Pledges

The 80% Commitment

All seven Anthropic co-founders—Dario AmodeiPersonDario AmodeiComprehensive biographical profile of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei documenting his 'race to the top' philosophy, 10-25% catastrophic risk estimate, 2026-2030 AGI timeline, and Constitutional AI appro...Quality: 41/100, Daniela AmodeiPersonDaniela AmodeiBiographical overview of Anthropic's President covering her operational role in leading $7.3B fundraising and enterprise partnerships while advocating for safety-first AI business models. Largely d...Quality: 21/100, Chris OlahPersonChris OlahBiographical overview of Chris Olah's career trajectory from Google Brain to co-founding Anthropic, focusing on his pioneering work in mechanistic interpretability including feature visualization, ...Quality: 27/100, Tom Brown, Jack Clark, Jared Kaplan, and Sam McCandlish—have pledged to donate 80% of their equity. Fortune

The pledge was announced alongside Dario Amodei's 38-page essay "The Adolescence of Technology" (January 2026), which frames AI-driven inequality as the central motivation. EA Forum Amodei argues that "wealthy individuals have an obligation to help solve this problem" and criticizes tech leaders who have "adopted a cynical and nihilistic attitude that philanthropy is inevitably fraudulent or useless."

Amodei wrote: "The thing to worry about is a level of wealth concentration that will break society." He cited Elon MuskPersonElon Musk (AI Industry)Comprehensive profile of Elon Musk's role in AI, documenting his early safety warnings (2014-2017), OpenAI founding and contentious departure, xAI launch, and extensive track record of predictions....Quality: 38/100's nearly $700 billion net worth exceeding John D. Rockefeller's Gilded Age wealth as evidence of unprecedented concentration, noting this is "before most of AI's economic impact has even materialized." The essay also calls for progressive taxation and government intervention as longer-term solutions, framing private philanthropy as a way to "buy time." Inc

Founder Equity Estimates

Founder stakes have diluted from approximately 6% each at founding to 2-3% each after multiple funding rounds: Brand Vision

Individual EA Connections

Dario Amodei (CEO):

• 43rd signatory of the Giving What We Can pledge (2010s)
• Wrote guest posts for GiveWell around 2007-2008
• Lived in a group house with Holden KarnofskyPersonHolden KarnofskyHolden Karnofsky directed $300M+ in AI safety funding through Open Philanthropy, growing the field from ~20 to 400+ FTE researchers and developing influential frameworks like the 'Most Important Ce...Quality: 40/100 and Paul ChristianoPersonPaul ChristianoComprehensive biography of Paul Christiano documenting his technical contributions (IDA, debate, scalable oversight), risk assessment (~10-20% P(doom), AGI 2030s-2040s), and evolution from higher o...Quality: 39/100
• Described as "a very early GiveWell fan" EA Forum

Daniela Amodei (President):

• Married to Holden KarnofskyPersonHolden KarnofskyHolden Karnofsky directed $300M+ in AI safety funding through Open Philanthropy, growing the field from ~20 to 400+ FTE researchers and developing influential frameworks like the 'Most Important Ce...Quality: 40/100, co-founder of GiveWell and former CEO of Coefficient Giving
• Previously expressed commitment to EA in her 2017 wedding announcement
• This connection creates a direct bridge between Anthropic wealth and the EA funding ecosystem
• Karnofsky joined Anthropic in January 2025 as a member of technical staff, working on responsible scaling policy and safety planning under Chief Science Officer Jared Kaplan Fortune
• Karnofsky was previously on the OpenAI board of directors (2017-2021) and was Dario's former roommate

Chris Olah: Pioneer in neural network interpretability whose research focus aligns directly with technical AI safetyParameterTechnical AI SafetyThis page contains only code/component references with no actual content about technical AI safety. The page is a stub that imports React components but provides no information, analysis, or substa... priorities. No documented Giving What We Can pledge or explicit EA affiliation—safety-focused but not necessarily EA-aligned in donation preferences.

Jack Clark: Former Policy Director at OpenAIOrganizationOpenAIComprehensive organizational profile of OpenAI documenting evolution from 2015 non-profit to commercial AGI developer, with detailed analysis of governance crisis, safety researcher exodus (75% of ...; co-founded Anthropic with focus on responsible AI development. No documented EA connections or donation pledges beyond the 80% commitment.

Tom Brown, Jared Kaplan, Sam McCandlish: No documented EA connections. Brown was lead author of GPT-3 at OpenAI; Kaplan is Chief Science Officer known for scaling laws research; McCandlish focuses on AI alignment research.

Summary of founder EA alignment:

• Strong EA connections (2/7): Dario Amodei (GWWC signatory, GiveWell history), Daniela Amodei (married to Holden Karnofsky)
• Safety-focused, EA uncertain (2/7): Chris Olah, Jack Clark
• No documented EA connections (3/7): Tom Brown, Jared Kaplan, Sam McCandlish

This represents a significant uncertainty: 5 of 7 founders (71% of founder equity) may direct donations to causes outside traditional EA priorities, or their EA alignment is undocumented.

EA-Aligned Investor Equity

Beyond founders and employees, two major EA-aligned investors hold significant Anthropic stakes: Jaan Tallinn and Dustin Moskovitz. Their equity represents additional EA-directed capital that the founder-only model fails to capture.

Jaan Tallinn

Jaan TallinnPersonJaan TallinnComprehensive profile of Jaan Tallinn documenting $150M+ lifetime AI safety giving (86% of $51M in 2024), primarily through SFF ($34.33M distributed in 2025). Co-founded CSER (2012) and FLI (2014),...Quality: 53/100, co-founder of Skype and Kazaa, led Anthropic's Series A at a $550 million pre-money valuation. Anthropic Tallinn has been one of the most significant individual funders of AI safety, having "poured millions into effective altruism-linked nonprofits and AI startups." Semafor

Equity estimate:

Tallinn co-founded the Centre for the Study of Existential RiskOrganizationCSER (Centre for the Study of Existential Risk)CSER is a Cambridge-based existential risk research centre founded in 2012, now funded at ~$1M+ annually from FLI and other sources, producing 24+ publications in 2022 across AI safety, biosecurity...Quality: 58/100 (CSER) and the Future of Life InstituteOrganizationFuture of Life Institute (FLI)Comprehensive profile of FLI documenting $25M+ in grants distributed (2015: $7M to 37 projects, 2021: $25M program), major public campaigns (Asilomar Principles with 5,700+ signatories, 2023 Pause ...Quality: 46/100 (FLI), and has consistently directed wealth toward existential risk reduction. Given his track record, his Anthropic holdings are highly likely to be directed toward EA-aligned causes.

Important caveats on Tallinn estimate:

• Tallinn's publicly reported net worth (≈$1-2B) is far below the $5.7-15.2B estimate above, suggesting either: (a) he sold shares in secondary transactions, (b) public estimates haven't caught up with Anthropic's valuation growth, or (c) our investment estimate is too high
• Early investors often sell portions of stakes in later funding rounds or secondary markets
• A more conservative estimate assuming partial sales: $2-6B (0.6-1.7% stake)
• Without public disclosure, significant uncertainty remains

Tallinn's stated investment philosophy:

"His policy is roughly to 'invest in AI and spend the proceeds on AI safety'... his philanthropy volume is correlated with his net worth, and his philanthropy is more needed in worlds where AI progresses faster." LessWrong

Tallinn has also expressed ambivalence about Anthropic specifically: "I'm not sure if they should be [dealing with dangerous stuff]. I'm not sure if anyone should be." 36Kr This suggests his philanthropic direction may prioritize AI safety organizations outside the lab ecosystem.

Dustin Moskovitz

Dustin MoskovitzPersonDustin Moskovitz (AI Safety Funder)Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna have given $4B+ since 2011, with ~$336M (12% of total) directed to AI safety through Coefficient Giving, making them the largest individual AI safety funders globally...Quality: 49/100, co-founder of Facebook and Asana, participated in both Anthropic's seed and Series A rounds. In November 2025, Fortune reported that Moskovitz "moved a $500 million Anthropic stake into a nonprofit vehicle to reinvest returns." Fortune

Equity estimate:

Moskovitz and his wife Cari Tuna have committed to giving away virtually all their wealth through Coefficient GivingOrganizationCoefficient GivingCoefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy) has directed $4B+ in grants since 2014, including $336M to AI safety (~60% of external funding). The organization spent ~$50M on AI safety in 2024, w...Quality: 55/100 (formerly Open Philanthropy's funding arm). The $500M nonprofit transfer confirms at least a portion is already legally committed to charitable purposes. Their total Anthropic stake likely exceeds this figure.

Other Early Investors

Other early investors with potential EA alignment include:

• Eric Schmidt: Participated in seed round; has funded AI safety research but not primarily EA-aligned
• Center for Emerging Risk Research: Early investor with explicit existential risk focus
• Various angel investors: Some early angels may have EA connections, but stakes are likely small

Investor equity estimates:

Employee Equity Analysis

Total Employee Equity Pool

Startups typically reserve 10-20% of equity for employee compensation. Based on Anthropic's growth trajectory:

EA-Aligned Employee Fraction

The EA Forum notes that "a lot of the early employees and higher-ups have EA-ish perspectives... this fraction is expected to decrease among more recent employees." EA Forum

Estimated EA alignment by employee cohort:

Note: Percentages may exceed 100% due to additional grants and refreshers for early employees.

The Matching Program: Historical vs. Current

Anthropic's employee donation matching program has changed significantly over time:

Historical program (2021-2024):

"For most of Anthropic's existence, employees could pledge up to 50% of their equity to nonprofits, with Anthropic matching that 3:1—an unusually strong incentive to pledge money to charity up-front" EA Forum

• Employee pledges up to 50% of their equity to a 501(c)(3)
• Anthropic matches the pledge 3:1 (adds 3x the pledged amount)
• Pledges are legally binding—equity transferred to DAFs
• Example: $10M equity → pledge 50% ($5M) → 3:1 match ($15M) → $20M total (4x multiplier)

Current program (2025+): Anthropic's careers page now lists 1:1 matching at up to 25% of equity grants—a significant reduction from the historical program. Anthropic Careers

• Employee pledges up to 25% of their equity
• Anthropic matches 1:1 (adds 1x the pledged amount)
• Example: $10M equity → pledge 25% ($2.5M) → 1:1 match ($2.5M) → $5M total (2x multiplier)

Implications for estimates:

• Early employees (2021-2024) who locked in under the 3:1 program retain those terms
• New employees face 1:1 at 25%—dramatically less generous
• Our employee matching estimates ($21-53B) may be overstated by 50-70% for the portion from recent hires
• The "legally bound" capital figure ($35-60B) should be understood as primarily from early employees under the old program

Employee Pledge Participation Estimates

Key constraints and uncertainties:

• Matching only covers 501(c)(3) organizations, excluding policy-focused 501(c)(4)s
• Some employees may prefer to retain flexibility rather than lock in pledges
• Tax optimization may favor post-IPO giving over pre-IPO pledges
• Matching source unclear: Anthropic funds matching from treasury/reserves or equity pool—this may dilute founders or come from a pre-allocated pool, but specifics are not public
• Program significantly reduced: Matching changed from 3:1 at 50% to 1:1 at 25% for new employees—estimates based on historical program may overstate future flows
• DAF cause allocation flexible: Money in DAFs is legally committed to some 501(c)(3), but donors retain advisory control over which charities receive grants—not all DAF capital will necessarily go to EA causes

Named EA-Connected Employees

Amanda Askell: 67th signatory of the GWWC pledge; ex-husband is William MacAskill, a co-founder of the EA movement. As an early employee focused on AI ethics, likely holds significant equity. EA Forum

Holden KarnofskyPersonHolden KarnofskyHolden Karnofsky directed $300M+ in AI safety funding through Open Philanthropy, growing the field from ~20 to 400+ FTE researchers and developing influential frameworks like the 'Most Important Ce...Quality: 40/100: Joined January 2025 as member of technical staff. As Daniela Amodei's spouse, co-founder of GiveWell, and former CEO of Coefficient Giving, represents a direct bridge to EA funding infrastructure. Later hire likely means smaller equity stake but high influence on donation decisions.

Anonymous employee quote: "I've made a legally binding pledge to allocate half of [my equity] to 501(c)(3) charities... I expect to donate the majority of the remainder."

Kyle Fish: First full-time AI welfare researcher at a major AI lab. Transformer News

Long-Term Benefit Trust Members

The LTBT includes several members with deep EA backgrounds who influence company direction:

• Zach Robinson: CEO of Centre for Effective AltruismOrganizationCentre for Effective AltruismOxford-based organization that coordinates the effective altruism movement, running EA Global conferences, supporting local groups, and maintaining the EA Forum.Quality: 78/100
• Neil Buddy Shah: Former GiveWell Managing Director; CEO of Clinton Health Access Initiative
• Kanika Bahl: CEO of Evidence Action (GiveWell top charity)

While Trust members don't directly benefit from equity, their presence signals organizational commitment to EA-aligned values.

Comparison with OpenAI

For context, OpenAI's restructuring created a different philanthropic vehicle: NBC News

The OpenAI Foundation's 26% stake at current valuations is worth approximately $130 billion, making it one of the best-resourced philanthropic organizations globally. Inside Philanthropy Unlike Anthropic's pledge-based model, the OpenAI Foundation has direct legal control.

The FTX Stake: A Cautionary Tale

FTX invested approximately $500 million for a 13.56% stake in Anthropic before its November 2022 bankruptcy. Due to subsequent funding rounds, this diluted to approximately 7.84% by 2024. CNBC

Bankruptcy Sale

The FTX bankruptcy estate sold the stake in two tranches:

Return: 2.7x on $500M investment, but proceeds went to FTX creditors rather than EA-aligned causes. Had FTX not collapsed, this stake would be worth approximately $27 billion at current valuations—capital that might have flowed to EA causes given SBF's stated intentions.

IPO Timeline and Liquidity

See Anthropic IPOAnalysisAnthropic IPOAnthropic is actively preparing for a potential 2026 IPO with concrete steps like hiring Wilson Sonsini and conducting bank discussions, though timeline uncertainty remains with prediction markets ...Quality: 65/100 for comprehensive analysis of preparation status, competitive dynamics, valuation trajectory, and detailed timeline estimates.

Anthropic is actively preparing for a potential 2026-2027 IPO, having hired Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati in December 2025 and initiated preliminary bank discussions. Key facts relevant to philanthropic funding flows:

• Timeline: Late 2026 possible but uncertain; prediction markets favor mid-2027
• Probability: Kalshi assigns 72% chance Anthropic IPOs before OpenAI
• Revenue trajectory: $1B → $9B+ ARR in 2025; targeting $26B in 2026
• Liquidity events: First employee buyback in March 2025 at $61.5B valuation

An IPO would unlock founder and employee liquidity, enabling pledge fulfillment. Lock-up periods (typically 6-12 months post-IPO) would delay capital deployment until 2027-2028 at earliest.

Alternative Exit: Acquisition

Anthropic could be acquired rather than IPO, with implications for EA-aligned capital:

Potential acquirers:

• Google (14% stake): Already largest strategic investor; acquisition would face severe antitrust scrutiny
• Amazon ($10.75B invested): Primary cloud partner; similar antitrust concerns
• Microsoft: Recent partnership; diversifying from OpenAI dependency
• Apple, Meta: Less likely but possible as AI competition intensifies

Acquisition implications:

• Immediate liquidity for all shareholders (no lock-up periods)
• Valuation might be premium or discount to public market estimates
• Long-Term Benefit Trust governance provisions would be tested
• Strategic acquirer might impose restrictions on founder/employee share sales
• Regulatory approval could take 12-24+ months given current antitrust climate

Probability estimate: Acquisition before 2028 is ~15-25% likely, based on regulatory barriers and Anthropic's stated preference for independence.

Valuation Uncertainty

The $380B valuation reflects the closed Series G round (February 2026), a firmer datapoint than the earlier $350B term sheet. Secondary market data from late 2025 showed variation:

The closed Series G at $380B provides more certainty than the previous term sheet figure, though secondary market prices may still diverge. All estimates in this analysis use $380B for consistency with the closed round.

Historical Evidence on Pledge Fulfillment

For comprehensive analysis of the Giving Pledge and billionaire philanthropy patterns, see Giving PledgeOrganizationGiving PledgeThe Giving Pledge, while attracting 250+ billionaire signatories since 2010, has a disappointing track record with only 36% of deceased pledgers actually meeting their commitments and living pledge...Quality: 68/100.

Giving Pledge Track Record

The Giving PledgeOrganizationGiving PledgeThe Giving Pledge, while attracting 250+ billionaire signatories since 2010, has a disappointing track record with only 36% of deceased pledgers actually meeting their commitments and living pledge...Quality: 68/100, founded in 2010 by Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, provides the most relevant historical comparison. A 2025 Institute for Policy Studies analysis reveals concerning patterns: IPS

Deceased pledgers (n=22):

• Met 50% threshold: 8 (36%)
• Did not meet threshold: 13 (59%)
• Lost fortune before death: 1 (5%)

Living original pledgers:

• Only Laura and John Arnold have exceeded 50% giving during their lifetimes
• Original 32 U.S. pledgers still billionaires saw wealth increase 283% (166% inflation-adjusted)
• Five pledgers experienced wealth increases exceeding 500%
• Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan's wealth grew over 4,000%

Where the money goes:

• Private foundations: 80% of $206B total
• Donor-advised funds: ≈$5B
• Working charities: ≈$40B (20%)

This suggests that even honored pledges may not reach working organizations for years or decades.

Age and Cohort Effects

The IPS analysis suggests older pledgers or those near billionaire threshold were more likely to fulfill commitments. Of 11 original pledgers no longer billionaires, 7 gave sufficiently to drop below threshold. This may be relevant to Anthropic founders, who are relatively young (30s-40s).

"Maintaining altruistic giving after sudden wealth is really difficult. There are surprisingly few cases of young people (under 40) giving away millions after a cash windfall." EA Forum

Facebook/Meta Comparison

The 2012 Facebook IPO created thousands of employee millionaires. Evidence on their philanthropy: Chronicle of Philanthropy

• Dustin Moskovitz: $4B+ donated through Good Ventures/Coefficient Giving
• Most other early employees: Limited public philanthropic activity
• Studies suggest tech entrepreneurs give ~2x more than inherited wealth, but absolute rates remain modest

Comprehensive Funding Flow Model

Previous estimates focused only on founder equity ($39-59B at current valuation). This understates total EA-aligned capital by excluding:

• EA-aligned investors (Tallinn, Moskovitz)
• Employee pledges with 3:1 matching
• Non-pledged EA-aligned employee giving

All Sources of EA-Aligned Capital at $380B Valuation

Optimistic scenario (uses historical matching terms, optimistic Tallinn estimate):

Conservative adjustments:

Recommended planning range:

• Optimistic (all founders count as EA-aligned): $75-158B gross, $56-70B risk-adjusted
• Conservative (only 2/7 strongly EA-aligned founders): $30-70B gross, $25-50B risk-adjusted
• For planning purposes, use: $25-70B risk-adjusted, acknowledging the wide range reflects genuine uncertainty about cause allocation

Scenario Analysis: Total EA-Aligned Capital

Extended Growth Scenarios (2-10x)

The base scenario analysis caps at $500B. Given Anthropic's trajectory—revenue growing from $1B to $9B in 2025 alone, enterprise market leadership, and potential AGI premium—higher valuations are plausible:

Historical precedent: Nvidia's valuation increased ~15x from 2020-2024 as it became the dominant AI infrastructure provider. If Anthropic achieves similar positioning in AI applications/models, comparable multiples are possible.

Extended EA Capital Estimates:

At 10x current valuation ($3.5T), total EA-aligned capital could exceed $1 trillion—though probability-weighted, this adds only $8-16B to expected value given low likelihood.

Interactive Estimate Models

Expected Value Calculation

Note: The scenario analysis table above uses optimistic assumptions (all founders counted as EA-aligned). The expected value calculations below reflect the full range from conservative to optimistic.

Probability-weighted EA capital (optimistic assumptions):

With conservative founder assumptions (only 2/7 strongly EA-aligned):

• Reduce founder contribution by ~60%
• Adjusted expected value: $48-58B

Final recommended range: $27-76B risk-adjusted, depending on assumptions about founder EA alignment and cause allocation.

Adjusting for Pledge Fulfillment Risk

Different capital sources have different fulfillment reliability:

Key insight: Employee pledges and matching are legally binding (equity already transferred to DAFs), making them more reliable than founder pledges which face Giving Pledge-style fulfillment risk. This shifts the model's center of gravity toward employee capital.

Capital by Reliability Tier

Timing Uncertainty

Capital availability depends on:

1. IPO timing (2026-2028 most likely)
2. Lock-up periods (typically 6-12 months post-IPO)
3. Founder decision timing (immediate vs. gradual over decades)
4. Foundation vs. direct giving (foundations delay deployment)
5. Employee liquidity (buybacks provide early access; first occurred March 2025)

Timeline estimates by source:

Realistic timeline for significant capital deployment: 2027-2035, with legally-bound employee capital arriving earliest.

Model Limitations and Caveats

This analysis contains significant uncertainties that could materially affect estimates:

Potential double-counting:

• The 3:1 matching pool must come from somewhere—likely company equity reserves or founder dilution. If matching comes from founder equity, the "Founders" and "Matching" rows may partially overlap.
• Some employee pledges may come from employees who are also counted as "EA-aligned" in other categories.

Overestimate risks:

• Tallinn stake: Our estimate ($5-14B) implies wealth far exceeding his reported net worth (≈$1-2B), suggesting he may have sold shares. Conservative estimate: $2-6B.
• EA alignment assumption: We assume most early employee pledges will go to EA causes, but DAF donors retain discretion. Some may fund universities, hospitals, or non-EA charities.
• Limited strong EA connections among founders: Only 2 of 7 founders (Dario and Daniela Amodei) have documented strong EA connections. Chris Olah and Jack Clark are safety-focused but have no documented EA pledges. Tom Brown, Jared Kaplan, and Sam McCandlish have no documented EA connections. This means 71% of founder equity may go to causes outside traditional EA priorities.
• Matching program reduced: The program changed from 3:1 at 50% to 1:1 at 25% for new employees. Our matching estimates ($21-53B) may be overstated by 50-70% for the portion from 2025+ hires. Only early employees (2021-2024) benefit from the generous historical terms.

Underestimate risks:

• Additional EA-aligned employees not captured in our estimates
• Founders may donate more than 80% (some EA-aligned founders have expressed intentions to give nearly everything)
• Valuation could exceed $350B at IPO

Structural uncertainties:

• Valuation basis: $380B is a closed Series G round figure, more reliable than the earlier $350B term sheet
• Acquisition scenario: 15-25% probability of acquisition before IPO, with different implications for liquidity timing
• AI industry risk: Regulatory action, technical setbacks, or competition could significantly reduce valuation

Recommendation: Use the risk-adjusted range of $27-76B for planning purposes, acknowledging that actual outcomes could fall outside this range in either direction.

Cause Allocation Uncertainty

Likely Beneficiaries

High confidence (AI safety/technical alignment):

• Anthropic's mission alignment makes AI safety natural focus
• Founders' technical backgrounds suggest interest in technical research
• Dario AmodeiPersonDario AmodeiComprehensive biographical profile of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei documenting his 'race to the top' philosophy, 10-25% catastrophic risk estimate, 2026-2030 AGI timeline, and Constitutional AI appro...Quality: 41/100's background in ML research
• Mechanistic interpretability research specifically expects "an influx of funding soon" EA Forum

Medium confidence (EA-adjacent):

• Global health (Dario's early GiveWell involvement)
• Pandemic preparedness/biosecurity (Anthropic's risk-focused culture)
• AI governance and policyCruxAI Governance and PolicyComprehensive analysis of AI governance mechanisms estimating 30-50% probability of meaningful regulation by 2027 and 5-25% x-risk reduction potential through coordinated international approaches. ...Quality: 66/100
• AI welfare research (Anthropic hired Kyle Fish in 2024 as first full-time AI welfare researcher) Transformer News

Lower confidence:

• Animal welfare: Frequent "second favorite" cause among longtermists, but when surveyed, EA community thinks 18-24% of resources should go to animal advocacy while actual allocation is ~7% EA Forum
• Digital minds: Very neglected area with few researchers
• Non-EA causes (inequality, climate): Dario's essay mentions inequality concerns but unclear if this translates to non-EA giving

Policy-focused organizations (501(c)(4)s):

• Americans for Responsible Innovation (ARI): AI policy advocacy
• AI Policy Network: Political donations for AI safety
• Note: Anthropic's matching program only covers 501(c)(3)s, limiting incentives for policy donations

Donor Advising Ecosystem

Several organizations are positioning to advise Anthropic employees: EA Forum

One EA Forum commenter noted their job "involves a non-zero amount of advising Anthropic folks" on donation decisions.

Differential Impact by Cause

From EA Forum analysis: EA Forum

"AI safety likely receives more Anthropic employee funding, while animal welfare and global health may face different dynamics."

This suggests Anthropic wealth may significantly expand AI safety funding while having less impact on other EA cause areas.

Concerns About Allocation

Value drift risk: The fraction of employees with EA-ish perspectives is expected to decrease among more recent hires. One commenter noted: "a lot of the early employees and higher-ups have EA-ish perspectives... this fraction is expected to decrease among more recent employees."

Time constraints: Anthropic employees are described as "incredibly time poor," and some interventions are very time-sensitive if donors have short AI timelines.

US-centric focus: One analysis raised concerns about "a strong focus on US-centric actions, which might [be] very suboptimal" for global impact.

Procrastination risk: "Empirically, it's common for billionaires to pledge a lot of money to charity and then be very slow at giving it away."

Strategic Implications

Scale Comparison

The EA movement has historically directed approximately $1 billion annually. EA Forum Potential Anthropic-derived funding using the comprehensive model (founders + investors + employees):

Note: Previous estimates using founder equity only showed $39-59B; the comprehensive model including investors and employees is 2-2.5x larger.

Front-Loading vs. Waiting

Arguments for current donors giving now: EA Forum

"A $100k gift represents 9% of current funding versus only 1% of projected future funding... organizations become less constrained by money than capacity."

Arguments for waiting:

• Coordination may avoid redundant capacity building
• Current giving has higher certainty of impact
• Anthropic wealth remains uncertain

Absorption Capacity Concerns

Whether the AI safety and broader EA ecosystem can productively absorb billions in additional funding remains unclear:

• Talent constraints: Top researchers are scarce; funding doesn't create talent
• Organizational scaling: Rapid growth often reduces effectiveness
• Grant evaluation: Evaluating $50B+ requires infrastructure that doesn't exist
• Diminishing returns: Best opportunities get funded first
• Potential for reduced rigor: Easy money may lower standards

Governance and Accountability

Long-Term Benefit Trust

Anthropic's Long-Term Benefit TrustAnalysisLong-Term Benefit Trust (Anthropic)Anthropic's Long-Term Benefit Trust represents an innovative but potentially limited governance mechanism where financially disinterested trustees can appoint board members to balance public benefi...Quality: 70/100 (LTBT) provides some mission accountability through five financially disinterested trustees with growing board appointment power (majority by 2027). However, critics note stockholder override provisions and the Trust's limited use of its appointment power to date. See the dedicated page for full analysis.

Pledge Enforcement

Unlike the OpenAI Foundation's legal control over board appointments, Anthropic founder pledges have no legal enforcement mechanism:

• Pledges are public commitments, not contracts
• Enforcement relies on reputational cost
• No third-party oversight of fulfillment
• Founders retain full discretion on timing, vehicles, and recipients

For analysis of interventions that could increase pledge fulfillment probability—including legal pledge conversion, DAF pre-commitment campaigns, and public accountability tracking—see Anthropic Founder Pledge InterventionsAnalysisAnthropic Founder Pledges: Interventions to Increase Follow-ThroughEvaluates interventions to make Anthropic founders' 80% donation pledges more likely to be fulfilled. Distinguishes collaborative interventions founders would welcome (DAF tax planning, foundation ...Quality: 45/100.

Prediction Markets

A Manifold Markets prediction market asks: "By the end of 2030, how much Anthropic money will have been donated to charity?" The market covers donations from all Anthropic-derived wealth, including individual donations from founders and employees who gained wealth through equity, as well as company matching contributions.

This market provides a useful external reference point for the estimates on this page. The risk-adjusted range of $27-76B estimated above covers total eventual EA-aligned capital, but much of that is expected to deploy over 2027-2035. By end of 2030, actual donations may be substantially lower than the total eventual figure, depending on IPO timing, lock-up periods, and founder decision timelines.

Key Uncertainties Summary