The Case FOR AI Existential Risk

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  "title": "The Case FOR AI Existential Risk",
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  "summary": "Comprehensive formal argument that AI poses 5-14% median extinction risk by 2100 (per 2,788 researcher survey), structured around four premises: capabilities will advance, alignment is hard (with documented reward hacking and sleeper agent persistence), misaligned AI is dangerous (via instrumental convergence), and alignment funding (\\$180-200M/year) lags capabilities investment (\\$100B+/year) by 200-500x. The argument synthesizes theoretical foundations (orthogonality thesis, instrumental convergence) with empirical evidence (Anthropic's sleeper agents, specification gaming) to conclude significant x-risk probability.",
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      "text": "AI Impacts 2023",
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      "text": "late 2026/early 2027",
      "url": "https://blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/whats-up-with-anthropic-predicting",
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      "text": "Geoffrey Hinton (2025)",
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