Epistemic & Forecasting Organizations

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---
numericId: E639
title: Epistemic & Forecasting Organizations
description: Organizations advancing forecasting methodology, prediction aggregation, and epistemic infrastructure to improve decision-making on AI safety and existential risks.
sidebar:
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lastEdited: "2026-01-29"
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entityType: organization
---
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## Overview

This section covers organizations focused on improving forecasting, epistemic tools, and quantitative reasoning—particularly as applied to AI safety and existential risk assessment. These organizations provide critical infrastructure for understanding AI timelines, evaluating interventions, and making better decisions under uncertainty.

## Key Organizations

| Organization | Focus | Key Products/Projects |
|--------------|-------|----------------------|
| <EntityLink id="organizations/epistemic-orgs/epoch-ai">Epoch AI</EntityLink> | AI trends research & compute tracking | ML Trends Database, Parameter Counts, Training Compute Estimates |
| <EntityLink id="organizations/epistemic-orgs/metaculus">Metaculus</EntityLink> | Prediction aggregation platform | AI Forecasting, AGI Timeline Questions, Tournaments |
| <EntityLink id="organizations/epistemic-orgs/fri">Forecasting Research Institute</EntityLink> | Forecasting methodology research | XPT Tournament, <EntityLink id="E144">ForecastBench</EntityLink>, Superforecaster Studies |
| <EntityLink id="organizations/epistemic-orgs/quri">QURI</EntityLink> | Epistemic tools development | <EntityLink id="E286">Squiggle</EntityLink> Language, Squiggle Hub, <EntityLink id="E200">Metaforecast</EntityLink> |
| <EntityLink id="organizations/epistemic-orgs/manifold">Manifold</EntityLink> | <EntityLink id="E228">Prediction markets</EntityLink> platform | AI Markets, <EntityLink id="E545">Manifest</EntityLink> Conference, <EntityLink id="E547">Manifund</EntityLink> |

## Why <EntityLink id="E122">Epistemic Infrastructure</EntityLink> Matters for AI Safety

Forecasting and epistemic tools are essential for AI safety because:

1. **Timeline Uncertainty**: AI development trajectories are highly uncertain; better forecasting helps allocate resources appropriately
2. **Intervention Evaluation**: Quantifying the expected impact of safety interventions requires probabilistic reasoning tools
3. **Early Warning**: Prediction markets and forecasting platforms can provide early signals about concerning developments
4. **Decision Support**: Policymakers and researchers need calibrated uncertainty estimates, not false precision
5. **Accountability**: Track records create feedback loops that improve institutional decision-making

## Related Resources

- <EntityLink id="E399">AGI Timeline</EntityLink> - Forecasts on when transformative AI may arrive
- <EntityLink id="E448">Alignment Evaluations</EntityLink> - Methods for assessing AI safety