Eliezer Yudkowsky: Track Record

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  "title": "Eliezer Yudkowsky: Track Record",
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  "summary": "Comprehensive tracking of Eliezer Yudkowsky's predictions shows clear early errors (Singularity by 2021, nanotech timelines), vindication on AI generalization (2008 FOOM debate), and acknowledged updates on deep learning. Core doom predictions (99% p(doom)) remain unfalsifiable; IMO bet won against Christiano, but pattern shows overconfidence on capabilities timelines while maintaining extreme confidence on catastrophic outcomes.",
  "description": "Documenting Eliezer Yudkowsky's AI predictions and claims - assessing accuracy, patterns of over/underconfidence, and epistemic track record",
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