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Elon Musk: Track Record

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This page documents <EntityLink id="E116">Elon Musk</EntityLink>'s public predictions and claims to assess his epistemic track record. For biographical information, controversies, and full context, see the main <EntityLink id="E116">Elon Musk</EntityLink> page.

## Summary Assessment

| Category | Count | Notes |
|----------|-------|-------|
| **Clearly Correct** | 2-3 | Early AI safety warnings, need for regulation discussion |
| **Pending** | 4-5 | AGI timelines, job displacement predictions |
| **Clearly Wrong** | 15+ | FSD timelines (nearly all missed by years), Dojo project |
| **Shifting Goalposts** | Many | AGI predictions move forward each year as deadlines pass |

**Overall pattern**: Prescient on directional safety concerns; consistently overoptimistic on specific product timelines by 3-6+ years; AGI predictions shift annually.

---

## Full Self-Driving Predictions (Extensively Wrong)

This is a well-documented area of Musk's prediction track record. From 2014-2025, he predicted "full self-driving" would arrive "by end of year" or "next year" virtually every year.

| Date | Prediction | Target | Type | Outcome | Source |
|------|------------|--------|------|---------|--------|
| **Sept 2014** | "Factor of 10 safer than a person" | ≈2020 | Interview | ❌ Not achieved | [Yahoo Finance](https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-says-tesla-self-201644802.html) |
| **Dec 2015** | "Complete autonomy approximately two years" | ≈2017 | Interview | ❌ Not achieved | [Electrek](https://electrek.co/) |
| **Oct 2016** | LA to Times Square autonomous drive "without touching steering wheel" | End 2017 | Announcement | ❌ Still not done as of 2026 | [Tesla](https://www.tesla.com/) |
| **Jan 2017** | FSD features "noticeably depart" | 3-6 months | Twitter | ❌ Not achieved | [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-25/can-tesla-make-up-for-autopilot-s-lost-year) |
| **Mar 2017** | Ability to fall asleep in Tesla "about two years away" | ≈2019 | TED Talk | ❌ Not achieved | [TED](https://www.ted.com/talks/elon_musk_the_future_we_re_building_and_boring) |
| **Feb 2018** | Coast-to-coast drive "in three months, six months at the outside" | Mid-2018 | Earnings call | ❌ Not achieved | [Teslarati](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-autopilot-fsd-coast-to-coast-demo-update-elon-musk/) |
| **Jan 2019** | "Feature complete full self driving this year... safe to fall asleep towards end of next year" | 2019-2020 | Podcast | ❌ Not achieved | [Ark Invest](https://ark-invest.com/) |
| **April 2019** | "One million robotaxis on the road" | End 2020 | Investor event | ❌ ≈32 cars in Austin as of Jan 2026 | [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/22/elon-musk-says-tesla-robotaxis-will-hit-the-market-next-year.html) |
| **July 2020** | "Basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year" | 2020 | Conference | ❌ Not achieved | [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2020/07/09/tesla-tsla-elon-musk-level-5-autonomy-complete/) |
| **Dec 2020** | "100% confident" Tesla will have Level 5 "next year" | 2021 | Interview | ❌ Not achieved | [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk) |
| **Jan 2022** | "Shocked if we don't achieve FSD safer than human this year" | 2022 | Earnings call | ❌ Not achieved | [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2022/01/31/elon-musk-tesla-full-self-driving-safer-than-human-this-year-5-years-ahead-of-everyone/) |
| **Oct 2024** | Unsupervised FSD in Texas and California "next year" | 2025 | Event | ⚠️ Limited launch June 2025 with safety monitors | [Tesla](https://www.tesla.com/) |

### "Autonomy Day" Million Robotaxi Claim (April 2019)

**Quote**: "From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we'll have over a million robotaxis on the road."

**Reality**: As of January 2026, Tesla has ≈32 robotaxis in Austin. Off by approximately 6 years and 999,968 vehicles.

**Sources**: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/22/elon-musk-says-tesla-robotaxis-will-hit-the-market-next-year.html), [Fast Company](https://www.fastcompany.com/90677822/elon-musks-tesla-robotaxi-promise-typifies-self-driving-overexuberance), [motherfrunker.ca/fsd](https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/)

### Hardware Claims

| Date | Claim | Type | What Happened | Source |
|------|-------|------|---------------|--------|
| **Oct 2016** | "All Tesla vehicles produced since 2016 have all the hardware necessary for full self-driving" | Announcement | Hardware 3 vehicles need upgrades | [Tesla](https://www.tesla.com/) |
| **Jan 2025** | Admitted Hardware 3 vehicles will need upgrades for unsupervised FSD | Earnings call | A promise made for nearly 9 years was finally acknowledged as false | [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/30/elon-musk-reveals-elon-musk-was-wrong-about-full-self-driving/) |

**Legal Note**: A securities fraud lawsuit alleging misleading FSD statements was dismissed in September 2024. Judge ruled Musk's statements were "corporate puffery."

### "We, Robot" Event (October 2024)

| Date | Claim | Type | Outcome | Source |
|------|-------|------|---------|--------|
| **Oct 2024** | "This will be one for the history books" | Twitter | Event started 53 minutes late; stock dropped 8% next day | [Fortune](https://fortune.com/2024/09/28/elon-musk-tesla-robotaxi-autonomous-self-driving-cars-robots-ai/) |
| **Oct 2024** | Cybercab in production by 2026, under \$30,000 | Event | ⚠️ Production planned Q2 2026 | [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Cybercab) |
| **Oct 2024** | Optimus robots would cost \$28,000-\$30,000, "babysit, mow lawns, fetch groceries" | Event | ⚠️ Pending | [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/storyline/tesla-robotaxi-event-follow-elon-musks-big-reveals-here/) |
| **Oct 2024** | **Rare admission**: "Obviously my predictions on this have been overly optimistic in the past" | Event | Acknowledged pattern | [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/10/elon-musk-hypes-a-30000-tesla-cybercab-robovan-at-robotaxi-event.html) |

---

## Tesla Dojo Supercomputer (Major Failure)

Dojo was Tesla's custom AI training supercomputer announced in 2020. After 6 years of hype, the project was quietly disbanded in August 2025.

| Date | Prediction | Type | Outcome | Source |
|------|------------|------|---------|--------|
| **Aug 2020** | Dojo "about a year away" | Announcement | ❌ Not operational until 2024 | [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2025/09/02/tesla-dojo-the-rise-and-fall-of-elon-musks-ai-supercomputer/) |
| **Aug 2021** | Dojo would be "fastest AI training computer on the planet" | AI Day | ❌ Never achieved leadership position | [Engineering.com](https://www.engineering.com/tesla-ai-day-musk-unveils-ambitious-plan-to-be-an-ai-world-leader/) |
| **Sept 2022** | First Dojo cabinet installed, scaling plans announced | Announcement | Partially achieved | [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Dojo) |
| **July 2023** | Would spend "well over \$1 billion" on Dojo next year | Interview | ✓ Spent, but project still failed | [DCD](https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/elon-musk-claims-tesla-will-spend-well-over-1bn-on-dojo-supercomputer-alongside-nvidia-gpus-for-100-exaflops-of-ai/) |
| **2024** | Dojo would reach 100 exaflops by Oct 2024 | Announcement | ❌ Never achieved | [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2025/09/02/teslas-dojo-a-timeline/) |
| **Aug 2025** | **Project disbanded**, team shut down | — | Major failure after 6 years of hype | [Bloomberg/TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2025/09/02/tesla-dojo-the-rise-and-fall-of-elon-musks-ai-supercomputer/) |
| **Jan 2026** | Claims Dojo will be "restarted" for "space-based AI compute" | Interview | ⚠️ Unclear if serious | [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2026/01/20/elon-musk-says-teslas-restarted-dojo3-will-be-for-space-based-ai-compute/) |

---

## xAI and Grok Predictions

### Grok 3 Timeline (Missed)

| Date | Prediction | Type | Actual Outcome | Source |
|------|------------|------|----------------|--------|
| **July 2024** | "Grok 3 end of year after training on 100k H100s should be really something special" | Twitter | ❌ Released Feb 17, 2025 | [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/02/xais-next-gen-grok-model-didnt-arrive-on-time-adding-to-a-trend/) |
| **Aug 2024** | Grok 3 "hopefully" available in 2024 "if we're lucky" | Lex Fridman podcast | ❌ Missed by ≈2 months | [AutoGPT](https://autogpt.net/its-2025-and-grok-3-is-nowhere-to-be-found/) |
| **Dec 2024** | "Grok 3 will be a major leap forward" | Twitter | Eventually released Feb 2025 | [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/02/xais-next-gen-grok-model-didnt-arrive-on-time-adding-to-a-trend/) |

### Grok Capability Claims

| Date | Claim | Type | Assessment | Source |
|------|-------|------|------------|--------|
| **Feb 2025** | Grok 3 is "an order of magnitude more capable than Grok 2" | Launch event | Benchmark results mixed | [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/18/elon-musk-xai-grok-3-model-release-ai-competition-.html) |
| **Feb 2025** | Called Grok 3 "scary smart" | Dubai summit | Marketing claim | [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/18/tech/grok-3-release-elon-musk) |
| **Feb 2025** | "This might be the last time that an AI is better than Grok" | Dubai summit | Hyperbolic claim | World Governments Summit |
| **July 2025** | Grok 4 is "smartest AI in the world" with "PhD level intelligence in every subject, no exceptions" | Launch event | ⚠️ Disputed - MMLU score 83.8% vs Claude 3.5's 88.7% | [MyGreatLearning](https://www.mygreatlearning.com/blog/grok-4/) |
| **July 2025** | Grok 4 Heavy was "smarter than GPT-5 two weeks ago" | Twitter | Jab at <EntityLink id="E218">OpenAI</EntityLink> | [Fox Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/musk-jabs-openai-says-grok-4-heavy-smarter-2-weeks-ago-than-newly-launched-gpt-5) |

### Colossus Supercomputer Claims

| Date | Claim | Type | Outcome | Source |
|------|-------|------|---------|--------|
| **Sept 2024** | Built "most powerful AI training system in the world" in 122 days (vs. 24 months estimate) | Announcement | ✓ Achieved | [Fortune](https://fortune.com/2024/09/03/elon-musk-xai-nvidia-colossus/) |
| **2024-2025** | xAI "will have more AI compute than everyone else combined within five years" | Interview | ⚠️ Pending - skeptics doubt feasibility | [Tom's Hardware](https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/elon-musk-says-xai-will-have-more-ai-compute-than-everyone-else-combined-within-five-years-macrohard-branding-emblazoned-on-the-roof-of-the-colossus-2-data-center-in-nod-to-the-billionaires-ai-project-to-challenge-microsoft) |
| **Nov 2024** | Plan to expand Colossus to 1 million GPUs | Announcement | ⚠️ In progress | [Capacity Media](https://www.capacitymedia.com/article/2e4448ylfh4c7zxhcavwg/news/article-musks-xais-colossus-cluster-set-for-one-million-gpu-supercomputer-expansion) |

---

## <EntityLink id="E399">AGI Timeline</EntityLink> Predictions (Shifting Goalposts)

| Date | Prediction | Target | Type | Source |
|------|------------|--------|------|--------|
| **2023** (xAI launch) | "Full AGI" | 2029 | Interview | [VentureBeat](https://venturebeat.com/ai/elon-musk-reveals-xai-efforts-predicts-full-agi-by-2029/) |
| **July 2023** | "Digital superintelligence in roughly the five- or six-year timeframe" | ≈2028-2029 | Twitter Spaces | Washington Post |
| **Dec 2023** | World "less than three years away from AGI" that can "write as good a novel as J.K. Rowling, discover new physics, or invent new technology" | ≈2026 | Interview | Various |
| **April 2024** | "AI smarter than smartest human" | 2025-2026 | X Spaces | [AiCerts](https://www.aicerts.ai/news/elon-musk-agi-timeline-will-machines-surpass-humans-by-2026/) |
| **May 2024** | AI will become so ubiquitous that "biological intelligence will be less than 1 per cent" | Long-term | Interview | [Euronews](https://www.euronews.com/next/2024/05/10/elon-musk-predicts-ai-will-overtake-humans-to-the-point-that-biological-intelligence-will-) |
| **Oct 2024** | AI advancing "10 times better per year" - "four years from now that would mean 10,000 times better" | ≈2028 | Conference | Riyadh conference |
| **Dec 2024** | AGI | 2025 | Summit | [NYT DealBook Summit](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/04/business/dealbook/elon-musk-donald-trump-agi.html) |
| **Dec 2025** | AGI (after missing 2025) | 2026 | Interview | [Gizmodo](https://gizmodo.com/elon-musk-predicts-agi-by-2026-he-predicted-agi-by-2025-last-year-2000701007) |
| **Jan 2026** | "True AGI" | 2026-2027 | Interview | [Gizmodo](https://gizmodo.com/elon-musk-predicts-agi-by-2026-he-predicted-agi-by-2025-last-year-2000701007) |
| **Jan 2026** | Superintelligence | ≈2030 | Davos | [AiCerts](https://www.aicerts.ai/news/elon-musk-agi-timeline-will-machines-surpass-humans-by-2026/) |
| **Jan 2026** | AI exceeds ALL human intelligence combined | 2030 | Davos | [AiCerts](https://www.aicerts.ai/news/elon-musk-agi-timeline-will-machines-surpass-humans-by-2026/) |
| **2025-2026** | "Digital superintelligence... may happen this year. If it doesn't happen this year, next year for sure" | 2025-2026 | Various | Multiple interviews |

**Pattern**: AGI prediction consistently moves forward by ≈1 year each year as deadlines pass. Similar pattern to FSD predictions.

---

## AI Safety Predictions (2014-Present) - Largely Vindicated

| Date | Quote/Action | Type | Outcome | Source |
|------|--------------|------|---------|--------|
| **Aug 2014** | AI is "potentially more dangerous than nukes" | Twitter | Now mainstream concern among researchers | [Twitter](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/) |
| **Oct 2014** | "With AI, we are summoning the demon" - compared AI to occult summoning | MIT Symposium | Framing influenced public discourse | [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2014/10/24/elon-musk-with-artificial-intelligence-we-are-summoning-the-demon/) |
| **Jan 2015** | Co-signed Open Letter on Artificial Intelligence calling for AI safety focus | Open letter | Safety now mainstream | [FLI](https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/) |
| **May 2015** | Met with President Obama one-on-one to warn about AI risk. "Obama got it," but nothing happened | Private meeting | No policy change | [TIME](https://time.com/6310076/elon-musk-ai-walter-isaacson-biography/) |
| **July 2017** | "AI is a fundamental risk to the existence of human civilization" | Governors meeting | AI safety now major policy concern | [NPR](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/07/17/537686649/elon-musk-warns-governors-artificial-intelligence-poses-existential-risk) |
| **July 2017** | Called for proactive AI regulation: "I think by the time we are reactive in AI regulation, it's too late" | Governors meeting | Now active policy discussion globally | [NPR](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/07/17/537686649/elon-musk-warns-governors-artificial-intelligence-poses-existential-risk) |
| **Sept 2017** | AI race dynamics could cause WW3 | Twitter | <EntityLink id="E239">Racing dynamics</EntityLink> widely acknowledged | [CNN](https://money.cnn.com/2017/09/04/technology/culture/elon-musk-ai-world-war/index.html) |
| **Sept 2023** | "There should be a government agency that oversees anything related to AI" - compared to FDA, NHTSA | Senate meeting | Ongoing policy debate | [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elon-musk-artificial-intelligence-regulations-tech-executives-senators-washington-meeting-bill-gates-mark-zuckerberg/) |
| **Aug 2024** | Supported California's SB-1047 AI safety bill | Twitter | Notable exception among tech leaders (bill vetoed) | [Fortune](https://fortune.com/2024/08/27/elon-musk-ai-safety-legislation-sb1047-california/) |

**Assessment**: Musk was among the first high-profile technology leaders to raise AI safety concerns publicly, years before it became mainstream. By 2023, over 350 tech executives signed statements declaring AI extinction risk a "global priority."

### AI Pause Letter Contradiction (March 2023)

| Date | Action | Type | What Actually Happened | Source |
|------|--------|------|------------------------|--------|
| **March 2023** | Signed open letter calling for 6-month pause on AI development more powerful than GPT-4 | Open letter | Was secretly investing "tens of millions" in Twitter's AI projects | [Fortune](https://fortune.com/2023/03/31/objections-to-elon-musk-ai-pause-letter/) |
| **March-April 2023** | Publicly advocated for pause | Public statements | Twitter had purchased ≈10,000 GPUs and was hiring AI experts from DeepMind | [SiliconANGLE](https://siliconangle.com/2023/04/11/despite-calling-6-month-pause-ai-projects-elon-musk-secretly-working/) |
| **July 2023** | Launched xAI six months after signing pause letter | Action | <EntityLink id="E433">Max Tegmark</EntityLink> defended: "as long as there isn't [a pause], he feels he has to also stay in the game" | [MIT Tech Review](https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/09/26/1080299/six-months-on-from-the-pause-letter/) |

### "TruthGPT" Claim (April 2023)

| Date | Claim | Type | Outcome | Source |
|------|-------|------|---------|--------|
| **April 2023** | Would build "TruthGPT" - a "maximum truth-seeking AI that tries to understand the nature of the universe" | Tucker Carlson interview | Became Grok; accused of significant bias and misinformation | [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2023/04/18/elon-musk-wants-to-develop-truthgpt-a-maximum-truth-seeking-ai/) |

---

## Neuralink Predictions (Missed by 3-4 Years)

| Date | Prediction | Type | Actual | Source |
|------|------------|------|--------|--------|
| **July 2019** | Human trials by end of 2020 | Interview | FDA rejected 2022 application | [MIT Tech Review](https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/01/16/1110017/what-to-expect-from-neuralink-in-2025/) |
| **Feb 2021** | "Initial human trials later this year" | Interview | Did not happen | [Teslarati](https://www.teslarati.com/neuralink-first-human-trials-date-elon-musk/) |
| **April 2022** | "Aspirationally" first implant "this year" | Presentation | FDA approval not until May 2023 | [Fierce Biotech](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/elon-musk-claims-neuralink-6-months-implanting-brain-computer-interfaces-humans-and-one-day) |
| **Nov 2022** | "In about six months we should be able to have our first Neuralink in a human" | Livestream | First implant January 2024 | [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) |
| **Jan 2024** | First human implant (Noland Arbaugh) | — | ✓ Achieved | [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) |
| **Jan 2025** | Disclosed 3 patients with working implants | — | ✓ Achieved | [MIT Tech Review](https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/01/16/1110017/what-to-expect-from-neuralink-in-2025/) |
| **2025** | Expected "20 or 30 patients" in 2025 | Interview | ⚠️ Pending | [MIT Tech Review](https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/01/16/1110017/what-to-expect-from-neuralink-in-2025/) |
| **Aug 2024** | "Millions within 10 years" | Interview | 12 patients total as of Jan 2026 | [Neuralink](https://neuralink.com/updates/) |
| **Long-term** | 20,000 implants/year by 2031, generating ≈\$1B annual revenue | Projection | ⚠️ Highly speculative | [Qz](https://qz.com/elon-musk-neuralink-predicts-20000-brain-chip-implants-per-year-2031) |

---

## Tesla Optimus (Robot) Predictions

| Date | Prediction | Type | Outcome | Source |
|------|------------|------|---------|--------|
| **Aug 2021** | Announced Tesla Bot | AI Day | Concept only | [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0z4FweCy4M) |
| **April 2022** | Production "hopefully next year" (2023) | Interview | Not achieved | [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2022/04/07/tesla-production-optimus-humanoid-robot-2023/) |
| **Sept 2022** | Showed prototypes | AI Day 2022 | Could barely walk | [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODSJsviD_SU) |
| **2025** | 10,000-12,000 units | Projection | Facing supply chain issues | [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/29/tesla-faces-supply-chain-issues-with-optimus-robot/) |
| **Oct 2024** | "By 2040 probably there are more humanoid robots than there are people" | Conference | Speculative | Riyadh, Saudi Arabia |
| **Long-term** | \$20,000-30,000 price, 1 million units/year | Projection | Speculative | [Tesla IR](https://ir.tesla.com/) |

---

## AI Jobs & Economy Predictions (Pending)

| Prediction | Type | Timeline | Status | Source |
|------------|------|----------|--------|--------|
| "Probably none of us will have a job" | Interview | 10-20 years | Pending | [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/probably-none-us-job-elon-200017498.html) |
| Work becomes "optional" | Conference | Long-term | Pending | [Fortune](https://fortune.com/2026/01/19/when-does-elon-musk-say-work-will-be-optional-and-money-will-be-irrelevant-ai-robotics/) |
| "Universal HIGH income" (not just basic) | Podcast | Long-term | Speculative | [Lex Fridman Podcast #252](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DxREm3s1scA) |
| "Work will be optional. It'll be like playing sports or a video game" | Forum | Long-term | Speculative | U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum Nov 2024 |
| 80% chance of "benign scenario" with abundance | Interview | - | Unfalsifiable | [Nasdaq](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/elon-musk-warns-ai-could-go-rogue-its-80-likely-be-great-20-could-spell-disaster) |
| "If any of the things that we've said are true, saving for retirement will be irrelevant" | Podcast | Long-term | Speculative | Moonshots with Peter Diamandis Jan 2026 |

---

## P(doom) Estimates

| Period | Estimate | Type | Source |
|--------|----------|------|--------|
| **2014** | AI is "biggest existential threat" | Twitter | [Twitter](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/495759307346952192) |
| **2024** | 10-20% chance AI "goes bad" | Interview | [Fortune](https://fortune.com/2024/10/30/elon-musk-ai-could-go-bad-existential-threat-xai-fundraising/) |
| **2026** | 80% likely "great," 20% "disaster" | Interview | [Nasdaq](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/elon-musk-warns-ai-could-go-rogue-its-80-likely-be-great-20-could-spell-disaster) |

**Comparison**: Lower than Yudkowsky (≈99%), similar to Amodei (≈25% "really badly").

---

## Accuracy Analysis

**Where Musk tends to be right:**
- Directional AI safety concerns (raised years before mainstream)
- General trajectory of AI importance
- Need for regulatory discussion

**Where Musk tends to be wrong:**
- Specific product timelines (FSD off by 6+ years consistently)
- Capability deployment dates
- Scaling predictions (Neuralink, robotaxis, Dojo)

**Confidence calibration:**
- Expresses extreme confidence ("100% confident," "for sure") on predictions that miss by years
- Rarely acknowledges past prediction failures
- Shifts goalposts without addressing missed deadlines

**Pattern recognition:**
Courts have characterized his FSD predictions as "corporate puffery" rather than binding commitments. This suggests a known pattern of aspirational statements not intended as firm predictions.

---

## Sources

### Primary Sources
- [motherfrunker.ca/fsd](https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/) - Comprehensive FSD prediction tracker
- [Wikipedia - List of predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles by Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk)
- [OpenAI - The truth about Elon Musk](https://openai.com/elon-musk/)
- [OpenAI - The truth Elon left out](https://openai.com/index/the-truth-elon-left-out/)
- [Semafor - The secret history of Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and OpenAI](https://www.semafor.com/article/03/24/2023/the-secret-history-of-elon-musk-sam-altman-and-openai)

### News Sources
- [TechCrunch - Tesla's Dojo timeline](https://techcrunch.com/2025/09/02/teslas-dojo-a-timeline/)
- [TechCrunch - xAI Grok 3 delay](https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/02/xais-next-gen-grok-model-didnt-arrive-on-time-adding-to-a-trend/)
- [Gizmodo - AGI prediction shifts](https://gizmodo.com/elon-musk-predicts-agi-by-2026-he-predicted-agi-by-2025-last-year-2000701007)
- [MIT Technology Review - Neuralink 2025](https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/01/16/1110017/what-to-expect-from-neuralink-in-2025/)
- [Fortune - SB 1047 support](https://fortune.com/2024/08/27/elon-musk-ai-safety-legislation-sb1047-california/)