Projecting Compute Spending

{
  "id": "projecting-compute-spending",
  "wikiId": "E680",
  "path": "/knowledge-base/models/projecting-compute-spending/",
  "filePath": "knowledge-base/models/projecting-compute-spending.mdx",
  "title": "Projecting Compute Spending",
  "quality": 72,
  "readerImportance": 72.4,
  "researchImportance": 59.5,
  "tacticalValue": 88,
  "contentFormat": "article",
  "causalLevel": null,
  "lastUpdated": "2026-02-12",
  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "summary": "Comprehensive quantitative analysis of 2026 hyperscaler AI capex (\\$700B+ across 6 companies, 58% YoY increase), projecting \\$5T cumulative through 2030, with detailed ROI analysis showing \\$1T annual AI revenue required for 10% ROIC against current ~\\$90B baseline, plus supply chain, energy, and governance implications. The page synthesizes public earnings data, analyst projections, and infrastructure constraints into a structured framework for understanding compute concentration dynamics relevant to AI governance.",
  "description": "Analysis of hyperscaler AI infrastructure capital expenditure, with \\\\$700B+ planned for 2026 across six major companies.",
  "ratings": {
    "focus": 8.5,
    "novelty": 5.5,
    "rigor": 7.2,
    "completeness": 8.8,
    "concreteness": 9,
    "actionability": 5.5,
    "objectivity": 7
  },
  "category": "models",
  "subcategory": "analysis-models",
  "clusters": [
    "ai-safety",
    "governance"
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "wordCount": 5970,
    "tableCount": 14,
    "diagramCount": 15,
    "internalLinks": 13,
    "externalLinks": 40,
    "footnoteCount": 67,
    "bulletRatio": 0.22,
    "sectionCount": 38,
    "hasOverview": true,
    "structuralScore": 15
  },
  "suggestedQuality": 100,
  "updateFrequency": 30,
  "evergreen": true,
  "wordCount": 5970,
  "unconvertedLinks": [
    {
      "text": "Q4 2025 Earnings Call",
      "url": "https://abc.xyz/investor",
      "resourceId": "4f2d889a647f7dbb",
      "resourceTitle": "Alphabet Q4 2024 Earnings - \\$75B capex guidance for 2025"
    },
    {
      "text": "Series E Funding Announcement",
      "url": "https://x.ai",
      "resourceId": "2c762da6c4432ac1",
      "resourceTitle": "Welcome | xAI — Creators of Grok, the AI Chatbot"
    },
    {
      "text": "TrendForce Q4 2025",
      "url": "https://trendforce.com",
      "resourceId": "0717feda953cabb5",
      "resourceTitle": "Global Market Intelligence & Consulting | TrendForce"
    },
    {
      "text": "SIA Q4 2025 Report",
      "url": "https://semiconductors.org",
      "resourceId": "6835d7e3a18fae94",
      "resourceTitle": "Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) — Official Website"
    },
    {
      "text": "SIA Q4 2025 Report",
      "url": "https://semiconductors.org",
      "resourceId": "6835d7e3a18fae94",
      "resourceTitle": "Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) — Official Website"
    },
    {
      "text": "SIA Q4 2025 Report",
      "url": "https://semiconductors.org",
      "resourceId": "6835d7e3a18fae94",
      "resourceTitle": "Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) — Official Website"
    },
    {
      "text": "2025 10-K",
      "url": "https://sec.gov",
      "resourceId": "3b766ea17775d5f2",
      "resourceTitle": "Company earnings reports"
    },
    {
      "text": "2025 10-K",
      "url": "https://sec.gov",
      "resourceId": "3b766ea17775d5f2",
      "resourceTitle": "Company earnings reports"
    },
    {
      "text": "2025 10-K",
      "url": "https://sec.gov",
      "resourceId": "3b766ea17775d5f2",
      "resourceTitle": "Company earnings reports"
    },
    {
      "text": "2025 10-K",
      "url": "https://sec.gov",
      "resourceId": "3b766ea17775d5f2",
      "resourceTitle": "Company earnings reports"
    },
    {
      "text": "2025 10-K",
      "url": "https://sec.gov",
      "resourceId": "3b766ea17775d5f2",
      "resourceTitle": "Company earnings reports"
    },
    {
      "text": "Company 10-Ks",
      "url": "https://sec.gov",
      "resourceId": "3b766ea17775d5f2",
      "resourceTitle": "Company earnings reports"
    },
    {
      "text": "SEC Filings",
      "url": "https://sec.gov",
      "resourceId": "3b766ea17775d5f2",
      "resourceTitle": "Company earnings reports"
    },
    {
      "text": "Company 10-Ks",
      "url": "https://sec.gov",
      "resourceId": "3b766ea17775d5f2",
      "resourceTitle": "Company earnings reports"
    },
    {
      "text": "Oracle 8-K",
      "url": "https://sec.gov",
      "resourceId": "3b766ea17775d5f2",
      "resourceTitle": "Company earnings reports"
    },
    {
      "text": "The Information",
      "url": "https://theinformation.com",
      "resourceId": "949bc1bb26c234b0",
      "resourceTitle": "The Information - Tech News and Analysis"
    },
    {
      "text": "Microsoft Disclosures",
      "url": "https://microsoft.com",
      "resourceId": "abb5ddea57c82ce1",
      "resourceTitle": "Microsoft Corporation Homepage"
    },
    {
      "text": "Financial Times Analysis",
      "url": "https://ft.com",
      "resourceId": "54ccb74b8312479b",
      "resourceTitle": "Financial Times - AI Coverage"
    },
    {
      "text": "Financial Times Analysis",
      "url": "https://ft.com",
      "resourceId": "54ccb74b8312479b",
      "resourceTitle": "Financial Times - AI Coverage"
    },
    {
      "text": "Financial Times Analysis",
      "url": "https://ft.com",
      "resourceId": "54ccb74b8312479b",
      "resourceTitle": "Financial Times - AI Coverage"
    },
    {
      "text": "Financial Times Analysis",
      "url": "https://ft.com",
      "resourceId": "54ccb74b8312479b",
      "resourceTitle": "Financial Times - AI Coverage"
    },
    {
      "text": "Financial Times Analysis",
      "url": "https://ft.com",
      "resourceId": "54ccb74b8312479b",
      "resourceTitle": "Financial Times - AI Coverage"
    }
  ],
  "unconvertedLinkCount": 22,
  "convertedLinkCount": 0,
  "backlinkCount": 4,
  "citationHealth": {
    "total": 11,
    "withQuotes": 2,
    "verified": 2,
    "accuracyChecked": 2,
    "accurate": 0,
    "inaccurate": 1,
    "avgScore": 0.9749999940395355
  },
  "hallucinationRisk": {
    "level": "low",
    "score": 10,
    "factors": [
      "well-cited",
      "high-rigor"
    ]
  },
  "entityType": "analysis",
  "redundancy": {
    "maxSimilarity": 20,
    "similarPages": [
      {
        "id": "ai-compute-scaling-metrics",
        "title": "AI Compute Scaling Metrics",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/models/ai-compute-scaling-metrics/",
        "similarity": 20
      },
      {
        "id": "export-controls",
        "title": "AI Chip Export Controls",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/responses/export-controls/",
        "similarity": 20
      },
      {
        "id": "authoritarian-tools-diffusion",
        "title": "Authoritarian Tools Diffusion Model",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/models/authoritarian-tools-diffusion/",
        "similarity": 19
      },
      {
        "id": "financial-stability-risks-ai-capex",
        "title": "Financial Stability Risks from AI Capital Expenditure",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/risks/financial-stability-risks-ai-capex/",
        "similarity": 19
      },
      {
        "id": "ai-megaproject-infrastructure",
        "title": "AI Megaproject Infrastructure",
        "path": "/knowledge-base/models/ai-megaproject-infrastructure/",
        "similarity": 18
      }
    ]
  },
  "changeHistory": [
    {
      "date": "2026-02-18",
      "branch": "claude/review-pr-216-P4Fcu",
      "title": "Fix audit report findings from PR #216",
      "summary": "Reviewed PR #216 (comprehensive wiki audit report) and implemented fixes for the major issues it identified: fixed 181 path-style EntityLink IDs across 33 files, converted 164 broken EntityLinks (referencing non-existent entities) to plain text across 38 files, fixed a temporal inconsistency in anthropic.mdx, and added missing description fields to 53 ai-transition-model pages."
    }
  ],
  "coverage": {
    "passing": 8,
    "total": 13,
    "targets": {
      "tables": 24,
      "diagrams": 2,
      "internalLinks": 48,
      "externalLinks": 30,
      "footnotes": 18,
      "references": 18
    },
    "actuals": {
      "tables": 14,
      "diagrams": 15,
      "internalLinks": 13,
      "externalLinks": 40,
      "footnotes": 67,
      "references": 16,
      "quotesWithQuotes": 2,
      "quotesTotal": 11,
      "accuracyChecked": 2,
      "accuracyTotal": 11
    },
    "items": {
      "summary": "green",
      "schedule": "green",
      "entity": "green",
      "editHistory": "green",
      "overview": "green",
      "tables": "amber",
      "diagrams": "green",
      "internalLinks": "amber",
      "externalLinks": "green",
      "footnotes": "green",
      "references": "amber",
      "quotes": "amber",
      "accuracy": "amber"
    },
    "editHistoryCount": 1,
    "ratingsString": "N:5.5 R:7.2 A:5.5 C:8.8"
  },
  "readerRank": 147,
  "researchRank": 223,
  "recommendedScore": 195.15
}

No external links