Relative Longtermist Value Comparisons

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  "title": "Relative Longtermist Value Comparisons",
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  "summary": "Relative value framework comparing longtermist funding vehicles to a GiveWell reference. Key findings: (1) Coefficient Navigating TAI Fund is ~50x–500,000x per GEU vs global health under longtermist priors; (2) LTFF is 0.3x–10x per dollar relative to Coefficient TAI, higher variance; (3) Anthropic stock (secondary market) has near-zero to slightly negative expected value vs direct safety funding — the March 2026 secondary market premium (~\\$595B implied, 57% above Series G) strengthens the case for holders to sell and redeploy to direct safety funding; (4) 1 year before TAI is worth ~\\$1B–\\$100T in AI safety research equivalents; (5) all comparisons are dominated by P(x-risk) and moral weight of future people as key cruxes.",
  "description": "A quantitative framework for comparing the expected value of different longtermist allocations on a common scale.",
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