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Alignment Research Center (ARC)
AR
Alignment Research Center (ARC)
Safety Organization
Founded Oct 2021
(4 years old)
HQ: Berkeley, CA
alignment.org ↗
Also known as: ARC, ARC Alignment
Entity
Overview
Wiki
About
People
2
Timeline
7
Divisions
2
Business
Grants Received
2
Market Data
12
Data
Facts
Database
Prediction Markets
12
Question
Probability
Platform
Category
Resolves
Will 'Towards Alignment Auditing as a Numbers-Go-Up Science' make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
14%
Manifold
other
–
Best AI time horizon by February 2026, per METR?
–
Manifold
capability
2026-04-30
Will AI reach a 3 hour time horizon with 80% reliability (METR)?
35%
Metaculus
capability
–
Model with METR time horizon ≥8 hours released in 2026?
96%
Manifold
capability
2026-12-31
Grok 4.20 METR 50% time horizon
–
Manifold
capability
–
By 2026, will OpenAI commit to delaying model release if ARC Evals thinks it's dangerous?
13%
Manifold
safety
–
What will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?
–
Manifold
capability
2026-12-31
Best AI time horizon by August 2026, per METR?
–
Manifold
capability
2026-10-31
Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?
31%
Manifold
capability
2026-10-20
Will Paul Christiano be confirmed as joining the US AI Safety Institute (USAISI) by April 1st, 2024?
–
Metaculus
leadership
2024-04-01
GPT 5.2 METR time horizon
–
Manifold
capability
–
Best METR 50% Time Horizon in 2026
–
Manifold
capability
2026-12-31