| Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce a pause on large training runs for safety reasons, before 2026? | 20% | Metaculus | safety | – |
| Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? | 14% | Polymarket | capability | 2026-06-30 |
| Google Gemini 3 score on Humanity's Last Exam by January 31, 2026? | – | Polymarket | capability | 2026-01-31 |
| Will there be an AI capabilities plateau in 2025? (featuring Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra as a sub-question) | – | Metaculus | capability | 2025-09-01 |
| Will Demis Hassabis's net worth exceed $3 billion USD by December 31, 2027? | 67% | Manifold | valuation | 2027-12-31 |
| Google Gemini 4 release date? | – | Manifold | capability | – |
| Will Google say 'DeepMind / Deep Mind' during their earnings call? (Feb 4, 2026) | 50% | Polymarket | other | 2026-02-04 |
| Will there be serious AI safety drama at Google or Deepmind before 2026? | 10% | Manifold | safety | 2026-01-01 |
| Serrano and Google DeepMind publish Navier-Stokes result by 2027? | 16% | Manifold | capability | 2027-12-31 |
| Will AlphaFold 4 be announced in 2025? | – | Manifold | capability | 2026-01-01 |
| Will Google Deepmind's autonomous agent be based on Gemini? | 75% | Manifold | capability | – |
| What day will Gemini 3.0 be released? | – | Polymarket | capability | – |
| When will Google DeepMind's Gemini model be publicly released? | – | Metaculus | capability | 2023-12-06 |
| Will Google Deepmind have AI-related IP stolen before 2026? | 4% | Manifold | other | 2026-01-01 |
| Gemini 3.0 released by...? | – | Polymarket | capability | – |
| When will DeepMind Sparrow chatbot be available outside Alphabet? | – | Metaculus | capability | – |
| Will 'AGI Safety and Alignment at Google DeepMind: ...' make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review? | 14% | Manifold | safety | 2026-02-28 |
| Has Google DeepMind solved P6 at IMO 2025? | – | Manifold | capability | 2025-07-31 |
| Gemini 3.5 released by March 31, 2026? | – | Polymarket | capability | 2026-03-31 |
| Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027? | 67% | Manifold | safety | 2027-12-31 |
| Google DeepMind announces a model that outperforms humans on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark before January 15, 2026 | 16% | Manifold | capability | 2026-01-15 |