Epoch AI is a research organization dedicated to producing rigorous, data-driven forecasts and analysis about artificial intelligence progress, with particular focus on compute trends, training datasets, algorithmic efficiency, and AI timelines.
AI Governance Coordination TechnologiesApproachAI Governance Coordination TechnologiesComprehensive analysis of coordination mechanisms for AI safety showing racing dynamics could compress safety timelines by 2-5 years, with $500M+ government investment in AI Safety Institutes achie...Quality: 91/100Eval Saturation & The Evals GapApproachEval Saturation & The Evals GapAnalysis of accelerating AI evaluation saturation, showing benchmarks intended to last years are being saturated in months (MMLU ~4 years, MMLU-Pro ~18 months, HLE ~12 months). A 2022 Nature Commun...Quality: 65/100
Analysis
FlexHEG (Flexible Hardware-Enabled Guarantees)ProjectFlexHEG (Flexible Hardware-Enabled Guarantees)FlexHEG is a nascent but technically serious proposal to embed tamper-resistant governance processors into AI accelerators, enabling cryptographically verifiable enforcement of international AI com...
Policy
US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy AIPolicyUS Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy AIExecutive Order 14110 (Oct 2023) established compute thresholds (10^26 FLOP general, 10^23 biological) and created AISI, but was revoked after 15 months with ~85% completion. The 10^26 threshold wa...Quality: 91/100EU AI ActPolicyEU AI ActComprehensive overview of the EU AI Act's risk-based regulatory framework, particularly its two-tier approach to foundation models that distinguishes between standard and systemic risk AI systems. ...Quality: 55/100
Concepts
Compute ThresholdsConceptCompute ThresholdsComprehensive analysis of compute thresholds (EU: 10^25 FLOP, US: 10^26 FLOP) as regulatory triggers for AI governance, documenting that algorithmic efficiency improvements of ~2x every 8-17 months...Quality: 91/100Existential Risk from AIConceptExistential Risk from AIHypotheses concerning risks from advanced AI systems that some researchers believe could result in human extinction or permanent global catastrophe, including institutional frameworks developed by ...Quality: 92/100SuperintelligenceConceptSuperintelligenceAI systems with cognitive abilities vastly exceeding human intelligenceQuality: 92/100Reasoning and PlanningCapabilityReasoning and PlanningComprehensive survey tracking reasoning model progress from 2022 CoT to late 2025, documenting dramatic capability gains (GPT-5.2: 100% AIME, 52.9% ARC-AGI-2, 40.3% FrontierMath) alongside critical...Quality: 65/100Large Language ModelsCapabilityLarge Language ModelsComprehensive analysis of LLM capabilities showing rapid progress from GPT-2 (1.5B parameters, 2019) to GPT-5 and Gemini 2.5 (2025), with training costs growing 2.4x annually and projected to excee...Quality: 60/100Epistemic Orgs OverviewEpistemic Orgs OverviewOrganizations advancing forecasting methodology, prediction aggregation, and epistemic infrastructure to improve decision-making on AI safety and existential risks.Quality: 70/100
Organizations
Rethink PrioritiesOrganizationRethink PrioritiesRethink Priorities is a research organization founded in 2018 that grew from 2 to ~130 people by 2022, conducting evidence-based analysis across animal welfare, global health, and AI governance. Th...Quality: 60/100MetaculusOrganizationMetaculusMetaculus is a reputation-based forecasting platform with 1M+ predictions showing AGI probability at 25% by 2027 and 50% by 2031 (down from 50 years away in 2020). Analysis finds good short-term ca...Quality: 50/100
Key Debates
Why Alignment Might Be HardArgumentWhy Alignment Might Be HardA comprehensive taxonomy of alignment difficulty arguments spanning specification problems, inner alignment failures, verification limits, and adversarial dynamics, with expert p(doom) estimates ra...Quality: 69/100Is AI Existential Risk Real?CruxIs AI Existential Risk Real?Covers the foundational AI x-risk debate across four core cruxes: instrumental convergence, warning sign availability, corrigibility achievability, and timeline urgency. Incorporates quantitative e...Quality: 12/100
Other
Dustin MoskovitzPersonDustin MoskovitzDustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna have given $4B+ since 2011, with ~$336M (12% of total) directed to AI safety through Coefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy), making them the largest individu...Quality: 49/100Sam AltmanPersonSam AltmanComprehensive biographical profile of Sam Altman documenting his role as OpenAI CEO, timeline predictions (AGI within presidential term, superintelligence in "few thousand days"), and controversies...Quality: 40/100
Risks
AI Knowledge MonopolyRiskAI Knowledge MonopolyAnalyzes the risk that 2-3 AI systems could dominate humanity's knowledge access by 2040, projecting 80%+ market concentration with correlated errors and epistemic lock-in. Provides comprehensive m...Quality: 50/100Emergent CapabilitiesRiskEmergent CapabilitiesEmergent capabilities—abilities appearing suddenly at scale without explicit training—pose high unpredictability risks. Wei et al. documented 137 emergent abilities; recent models show step-functio...Quality: 61/100
Historical
Deep Learning Revolution EraHistoricalDeep Learning Revolution EraComprehensive timeline documenting 2012-2020 AI capability breakthroughs (AlexNet, AlphaGo, GPT-3) and parallel safety field development, with quantified metrics showing capabilities funding outpac...Quality: 44/100