Also known as: Meta, Meta AI, FAIR, Facebook AI Research, Meta Fundamental AI Research
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People2Prediction Markets
12| Question | Probability | Platform | Category | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| When will Meta release Llama 5? | – | Manifold | timeline | 2028-01-01 |
| Meta will begin charging for use of its Llama models (2025 Forbes AI Prediction). | 43% | Manifold | revenue | – |
| Llama 5 (Meta) release date | – | Manifold | timeline | – |
| Will Llama-3 (or next open Meta model) be obviously good in its first-order effects on the world? | 87% | Manifold | safety | – |
| Will Meta have the best AI model (highest Chatbot Arena score) at end of 2025? | 1% | Polymarket | capability | 2025-12-31 |
| Will Meta open source Llama 4 (or equivalent)? | – | Manifold | other | – |
| The AI Throne 2026: Which model family will rule the LMSYS Arena? (Meta included as outcome) | – | Manifold | capability | 2026-12-31 |
| Meta releases Llama 5 in 2025? | 0% | Polymarket | timeline | 2025-12-31 |
| Will Llama 4 be the best LLM in the chatbot arena? | – | Manifold | capability | – |
| When will Llama 4 Behemoth weights become publicly available? | – | Manifold | timeline | 2026-08-26 |
| Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30? | – | Polymarket | capability | 2026-06-30 |
| 'Avocado' LLM (Meta) release date | – | Manifold | timeline | – |