Also known as: Redwood
Policy & Governance
Policy Positions1Prediction Markets
8| Question | Probability | Platform | Category | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By 2028, will I think Redwood Research has been net-good for the world? | 83% | Manifold | other | 2028-01-01 |
| Will Redwood Research still exist in 3 years? | 68% | Manifold | other | – |
| Will Redwood Research still exist in 2 years? | 90% | Manifold | other | – |
| Will Redwood Research still exist in 5 years? | 53% | Manifold | other | – |
| Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 5 years? | 49% | Manifold | other | – |
| Will "The inaugural Redwood Research podcast" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? | 15% | Manifold | other | 2028-02-28 |
| Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 2 years? | 88% | Manifold | other | – |
| Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 3 years? | 60% | Manifold | other | – |