Overview
Ajeya Cotra is a member of technical staff at METR (Model Evaluation and Threat Research) and formerly a senior advisor at Coefficient Giving (formerly Coefficient Giving), where she spent nine years doing AI strategy research and leading technical AI safety grantmaking. She is among the most respected and accurate forecasters of AI developments, placing 3rd out of 413 participants in an AI forecasting competition, and her work on timelines, capability evaluations, and threat modeling has been widely influential in AI safety circles.
Cotra is best known for the Bio Anchors report, developed with Holden Karnofsky, which estimates AI development timelines by comparing required computation to biological systems. The framework projects roughly 15% probability of transformative AI by 2036 and 50% by 2060. More recently, she has developed influential thinking on the "crunch time" window --- the potentially brief period (perhaps 6--12 months) between AI automating AI research and the arrival of uncontrollably powerful superintelligence --- and the case for redirecting AI labor toward alignment, biodefense, cyberdefense, and collective decision-making during that window.
| Dimension | Details |
|---|---|
| Current Role | Member of Technical Staff, METR (since late 2025) |
| Previous Role | Senior Advisor, Coefficient Giving (2016--2025) |
| Education | UC Berkeley (graduated 2016) |
| Key Publication | Bio Anchors report on AI timelines |
| Forecasting | 3rd out of 413 in AI development forecasting competition |
| Grantmaking | Led $25M+ agent benchmarks RFP; $2--3M evidence-gathering RFP |
| Core Thesis | Early 2030s: top-human-expert-dominating AI; followed by 6--12 month crunch time window |
Career Evolution
Research at Coefficient Giving (2016--2023)
Cotra joined GiveWell (the predecessor organization) in 2016 immediately after graduating from UC Berkeley, drawn by the organization's intellectual depth and commitment to rigorous charity evaluation. For her first six to seven years, she focused primarily on deep research rather than grantmaking --- an unusual role at a grantmaking organization, driven by demand from leadership (particularly Holden Karnofsky) for foundational AI strategy work.
Key research outputs during this period include:
- Bio Anchors Report (2020): A framework for estimating AI timelines by comparing required computation to biological systems, projecting 15% probability of transformative AI by 2036 and 50% by 2060. This became one of the most cited references in AI timelines discourse.
- AI Takeoff Speeds Analysis: Research on how quickly capabilities might advance once key thresholds are reached.
- Threat Modeling: Work on how AI could lead to catastrophic outcomes, including through deceptive alignment and power-seeking behavior.
Technical AI Safety Grantmaking (2023--2025)
In late 2023, Cotra transitioned to leading Coefficient Giving's technical AI safety grantmaking portfolio, which had been orphaned after previous program officers departed. She brought a distinctive approach emphasizing deep inside-view understanding of research directions rather than relying primarily on heuristics about researcher quality.
Her approach involved forming detailed views about how specific research directions (interpretability, control, evaluations) would connect to preventing AI takeover, then using those views to co-create grant opportunities with researchers. This contrasted with the organization's more typical approach of faster, less deeply justified grantmaking.
Major grantmaking achievements:
| Initiative | Amount | Focus |
|---|---|---|
| Agent Benchmarks RFP (late 2023) | $25M | Funded realistic agent benchmarks including Cybench; pushed for harder, more realistic tasks than existing benchmarks |
| Evidence-Gathering RFP | $2--3M | Funded surveys, RCTs, and other non-benchmark evidence about AI impact, including the LEAP panel at the Forecasting Research Institute |
| FTX Emergency Grants (2022) | ≈50 grants | Rapid response grants to researchers affected by the FTX Foundation collapse |
Sabbatical and Transition to METR (2025)
After Karnofsky's departure from Coefficient Giving in 2023, Cotra found the working environment increasingly difficult --- the loss of engaged intellectual partnership, challenges with management, and the tension between her desire for deep understanding and the pace demands of grantmaking. In September 2025, she took a four-month sabbatical.
During the sabbatical, she reflected on career patterns, participated in the inaugural Curve Conference (bringing together AI skeptics and safety researchers), and considered going independent as a writer. She ultimately returned to Coefficient Giving in a senior advisor role, helping new GCR director Emily Oehlsen develop strategy, before joining METR as a member of technical staff --- a role more aligned with her desire for deep research.