#1 RAND Forecasting Initiative all-time leaderboard; co-authored AI 2027 scenario forecast; co-lead of SamotsvetyOrganizationSamotsvetyElite forecasting group Samotsvety dominated INFER competitions 2020-2022 with relative Brier scores twice as good as competitors, providing influential probabilistic forecasts including 28% TAI by...Quality: 61/100 forecasting team
Current Roles
Co-founder and researcher at AI Futures ProjectOrganizationAI Futures ProjectAI Futures Project is a nonprofit co-founded in 2024 by Daniel Kokotajlo, Eli Lifland, and Thomas Larsen that produces detailed AI capability forecasts, most notably the AI 2027 scenario depicting ...Quality: 50/100; co-founder/advisor at Sage; guest fund manager at Long Term Future Fund
Educational Background
Computer science and economics degrees from University of Virginia
Notable Contributions
AI 2027 scenario forecast; AI Futures timelines model; top-ranked forecasting track record