Samotsvety
OrganizationElite forecasting group Samotsvety dominated INFER competitions 2020-2022 with relative Brier scores twice as good as competitors, providing influential probabilistic forecasts including 28% TAI by 2030, 60% by 2050, and 25% misaligned AI takeover by 2100. Their work is widely cited in EA/rationalist communities and by policymakers.
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