Superforecaster affiliated with Good Judgment, Swift Centre, Samotsvety, and RAND; AI policy researcher at ControlAI; key member of Sentinel early warning system for global catastrophes
Good JudgmentOrganizationGood Judgment (Forecasting)Good Judgment Inc. is a commercial forecasting organization that emerged from successful IARPA research, demonstrating that trained 'superforecasters' can outperform intelligence analysts and predi...Quality: 50/100, Swift CentreOrganizationSwift CentreSwift Centre is a UK forecasting organization that provides conditional forecasting services to various clients including some AI companies, but is not primarily focused on AI safety. While they de...Quality: 50/100, SamotsvetyOrganizationSamotsvetyElite forecasting group Samotsvety dominated INFER competitions 2020-2022 with relative Brier scores twice as good as competitors, providing influential probabilistic forecasts including 28% TAI by...Quality: 61/100, RAND, ControlAIOrganizationControlAIControlAI is a UK-based advocacy organization that has achieved notable policy engagement success (briefing 150+ lawmakers, securing support from 100+ UK parliamentarians) while promoting direct in...Quality: 63/100, SentinelOrganizationSentinel (Catastrophic Risk Foresight)Sentinel is a catastrophic risk foresight organization co-founded by Nuño Sempere and Rai Sur, operating informally from around 2023 and incorporated as a US 501(c)(3) nonprofit in or after late 20...Quality: 39/100
Focus Areas
AI existential risk, biological risks, geopolitical forecasting, global catastrophe early detection
Notable Contributions
Sentinel early warning system, AI x-risk forecasting, EA Forum discussions on utilitarianism and bias
Education
London School of Economics (LSE), University of Chicago
Community Presence
Active on EA Forum; limited LessWrongOrganizationLessWrongLessWrong is a rationality-focused community blog founded in 2009 that has influenced AI safety discourse, receiving $5M+ in funding and serving as the origin point for ~31% of EA survey respondent...Quality: 44/100 presence
Notable ForSuperforecaster affiliated with Good Judgment, Swift Centre, Samotsvety, and RAND; AI policy researcher at ControlAI; key member of Sentinel early warning system for global catastrophes
EducationLondon School of Economics (LSE); University of Chicago