Ajeya Cotra on whether it's crazy that every AI company's safety plan depends on AGI being decades away

## On this page:

- [1 Introduction](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/ajeya-cotra-transformative-ai-crunch-time/#top)
  - [1.1 The episode in a nutshell](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/ajeya-cotra-transformative-ai-crunch-time/#summary)
- [2 Highlights](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/ajeya-cotra-transformative-ai-crunch-time/#highlights)
- [3 Articles, books, and other media discussed in the show](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/ajeya-cotra-transformative-ai-crunch-time/#articles-books-and-other-media-discussed-in-the-show)
- [4 Transcript](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/ajeya-cotra-transformative-ai-crunch-time/#transcript)
  - [4.1 Cold open \[00:00:00\]](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/ajeya-cotra-transformative-ai-crunch-time/#cold-open-000000)
  - [4.2 Ajeya's strong track record for identifying key AI issues \[00:00:43\]](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/ajeya-cotra-transformative-ai-crunch-time/#ajeyas-strong-track-record-for-identifying-key-ai-issues-000043)
  - [4.3 The 1,000-fold disagreement about AI's effect on economic growth \[00:02:30\]](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/ajeya-cotra-transformative-ai-crunch-time/#the-1000-fold-disagreement-about-ais-effect-on-economic-growth-000230)
  - [4.4 Could any evidence actually change people's minds? \[00:22:48\]](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/ajeya-cotra-transformative-ai-crunch-time/#could-any-evidence-actually-change-peoples-minds-002248)
  - [4.5 The most dangerous AI progress might remain secret \[00:29:55\]](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/ajeya-cotra-transformative-ai-crunch-time/#the-most-dangerous-ai-progress-might-remain-secret-002955)
  - [4.6 White-knuckling the 12-month window after automated AI R&D \[00:46:16\]](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/ajeya-cotra-transformative-ai-crunch-time/#white-knuckling-the-12-month-window-after-automated-ai-rd-004616)
  - [4.7 AI help is most valuable right before things go crazy \[01:10:36\]](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/ajeya-cotra-transformative-ai-crunch-time/#ai-help-is-most-valuable-right-before-things-go-crazy-011036)
  - [4.8 Foundations should go from paying researchers to paying for inference \[01:23:08\]](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/ajeya-cotra-transformative-ai-crunch-time/#foundations-should-go-from-paying-researchers-to-paying-for-inference-012308)
  - [4.9 Will frontier AI even be for sale during the explosion? \[01:30:21\]](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/ajeya-cotra-transformative-ai-crunch-time/#will-frontier-ai-even-be-for-sale-during-the-explosion-013021)
  - [4.10 Pre-crunch prep: what we should do right now \[01:42:10\]](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/ajeya-cotra-transformative-ai-crunch-time/#pre-crunch-prep-what-we-should-do-right-now-014210)
  - [4.11 A grantmaking trial by fire at Coefficient Giving \[01:45:12\]](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/ajeya-cotra-transformative-ai-crunch-tim

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