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Metaculus AI forecasts

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Metaculus·metaculus.com/questions/ai/

Credibility Rating

3/5
Good(3)

Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.

Rating inherited from publication venue: Metaculus

This link is broken (404); users seeking Metaculus AI forecasts should visit metaculus.com and search for AI-related questions directly, as this URL no longer resolves to content.

Metadata

Importance: 35/100tool pagereference

Summary

This URL was intended to link to Metaculus's collection of AI-related forecasting questions, a platform where forecasters make probabilistic predictions about AI development timelines, capabilities, and risks. However, the page currently returns a 404 error, indicating the content may have moved or been reorganized.

Key Points

  • •Page returns a 404 error; the intended AI forecasting question repository is currently inaccessible at this URL.
  • •Metaculus is a well-known forecasting platform that hosts many AI safety and capability timeline prediction questions.
  • •Community forecasts on Metaculus have been cited in AI governance and risk assessment discussions.
  • •The platform aggregates probabilistic predictions from many forecasters to produce calibrated community estimates.

Cited by 1 page

PageTypeQuality
AI Risk Activation Timeline ModelAnalysis66.0

Cached Content Preview

HTTP 200Fetched Mar 15, 20260 KB
# Page not found

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Resource ID: 248087ef55725b11 | Stable ID: MDljMWMyMz