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AGI/Singularity Timing: 9,800 Predictions Analyzed
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Useful as a secondary reference for understanding the distribution of expert and community beliefs about AGI timelines, though methodology relies on aggregation across heterogeneous sources with varying rigor.
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Importance: 42/100blog postanalysis
Summary
A meta-analysis of approximately 9,800 predictions from AI researchers, entrepreneurs, and prediction markets regarding when AGI will arrive. The analysis synthesizes survey data, individual expert forecasts, and community prediction markets to show a trend toward earlier AGI expectations, with scientists predicting the 2040s and community forecasters predicting the 2030s.
Key Points
- •Aggregates ~9,800 predictions from 8 peer-reviewed surveys, 15 AI experts, and platforms like Metaculus, Manifold, Kalshi, and Polymarket
- •Scientific surveys predict AGI around the 2040s; community/prediction markets converge around the 2030s; entrepreneurs predict much sooner
- •The trend over time shows respondents consistently revising AGI arrival dates to be earlier than previously expected
- •AGI is defined as an AI system matching human cognitive abilities across all tasks; current narrow AI does not meet this bar
- •Prediction markets (1,100+ forecasts) and Samotsvety Forecasting aggregates are included alongside traditional survey data
Cited by 2 pages
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| The Case For AI Existential Risk | Argument | 66.0 |
| AGI Timeline | Concept | 59.0 |
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# AGI/Singularity: 9,800 Predictions Analyzed
[](https://research.aimultiple.com/author/cem-dilmegani/)
[Cem Dilmegani](https://research.aimultiple.com/author/cem-dilmegani/)
with
[Sıla Ermut](https://research.aimultiple.com/author/sila-ermut/)
updated on Feb 26, 2026
See our [ethical norms](https://aimultiple.com/commitments)
Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is when an AI system matches human cognitive abilities across all tasks. Based on available predictions, quick answers on AGI:
**Will AGI/singularity happen?** [AGI is inevitable](https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intelligence-singularity-timing/#why-experts-believe-agi-is-inevitable-key-arguments-evidence) according to most AI experts.
**When will the singularity/AGI happen?** [Recent surveys of AI researchers](https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intelligence-singularity-timing/#results-of-major-surveys-of-ai-researchers) predict AGI in 2040s. According to [community forecasts](https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intelligence-singularity-timing/#community-insights), AGI is expected around 2030s. [Entrepreneurs are predicting it to happen in a few years.](https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intelligence-singularity-timing/#insights-from-ai-entrepreneurs-individual-researchers)
We analyzed 9,800 AI scientists’, leading entrepreneurs’ and the community’s predictions in the AGI timeline:
## Artificial General Intelligence timeline
2017201820192020202120222023202420252026Year of Prediction2025203020352040204520502055206020652070Expected Year of AGI Development
Scientists
Individuals
Prediction Markets
The timeline above outlines the anticipated year of the singularity, based on insights gathered from 8 surveys and responses from 9,800 AI researchers, scientists, and participants in prediction markets:
As you can see above, survey respondents are increasingly expecting the singularity to occur earlier than previously expected.
Here is how we created this graph:
- To plot the expected year of AGI development on the graph, we used the weighted average of predictions for each year within each category. For example, if there were multiple Prediction Market forecasts in 2022, we calculated their weighted average and plotted that value.
- For individual predictions, we included forecasts from 15 AI experts.
- For scientific predictions, we collected survey results from 8 peer-reviewed papers that provide timelines for AGI.
- For prediction markets & community insight predictions, we used:
- Over 1,100 p
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