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Metaculus AGI forecasts
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Good(3)Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.
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A crowd-sourced probabilistic forecast on AGI timelines with well-defined resolution criteria; useful as a real-time community sentiment indicator on near-term general AI capabilities.
Metadata
Importance: 52/100otherreference
Summary
A Metaculus forecasting question asking when the first 'weakly general AI' system will be publicly announced, with a current community median estimate of April 2028. The question defines precise resolution criteria including passing a Turing test variant, 90%+ on Winograd Schema, 75th percentile SAT math, and mastering Montezuma's Revenge, all within a single unified system.
Key Points
- •Community median forecast as of recent data is April 11, 2028, based on 1,700+ forecasters
- •Resolution requires a single unified system meeting four distinct benchmarks: Turing test, Winograd Schema (90%+), SAT math (75th percentile), and Montezuma's Revenge exploration
- •The 'unified' requirement explicitly rules out cobbled-together specialized subsystems, pushing toward genuine general capability
- •Key factors cited include progress on multi-step agent chains and geopolitical events like Taiwan conflict as timeline influences
- •Forecasts have shifted over time, reflecting evolving community views on AI capability trajectories
Cited by 1 page
| Page | Type | Quality |
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| AGI Development | -- | 52.0 |
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[**592** comments](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/#comments)
**1.7k** forecasters
# When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
11 Apr 2028
202020202020202020212021202220232024202720302036204220552074209621412200
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Top Key Factors
View all (5)
↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals
Impact
later
Strength
3 votes
China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI
Impact
Earlier
Strength
29 votes
↓ grid/permit delays & export controls on HBM/nodes
Impact
later
Strength
2 votes
AI become student of arts university in Vienna
Impact
later
Strength
24 votes
↑ multi-year compute/colo contracts confirmed via filings
Impact
later
Strength
2 votes
CommentsTimelineKey FactorsQuestion Info
Timeline
1d1w2mall
14 Aug 202401 Feb 202628 Dec 202717 Mar 2030May 203314 Aug 202401 Feb 202628 Dec 202717 Mar 2030May 2033
Jan 20Jan 22Jan 24Jan 26Jan 28Jan 30Feb 01Feb 03Feb 05Feb 07Feb 09Feb 11Feb 13Feb 15Feb 17Feb 19Feb 21Feb 23Feb 25Feb 27Mar 01Mar 03Mar 05Mar 07Mar 09Mar 11Mar 13Mar 15Mar 17Mar 1911 Apr 2028
Resolution Criteria
For these purposes we will thus define "AI system" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.
- Able to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/).
- Able to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the ["Winogrande" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%
- Be able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages.
- Be able to learn the classic Atari game "Montezuma's revenge" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).)
By "unified" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of "introspection" so much as a provision that the system _not_ simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to ma
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