Back
Good Judgment Inc. - About
webCredibility Rating
3/5
Good(3)Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.
Rating inherited from publication venue: Good Judgment
Good Judgment Inc. is relevant to AI safety discussions around forecasting AI timelines and risks; their superforecasting methodology is sometimes used to estimate probabilities of AI-related outcomes.
Metadata
Importance: 40/100homepage
Summary
Good Judgment Inc. is a professional forecasting and superforecasting organization that applies structured analytical methods to improve prediction accuracy on geopolitical, economic, and emerging technology questions. Founded on research from the Good Judgment Project, it offers forecasting services and training. The organization is known for developing and deploying 'superforecasters' whose predictions significantly outperform traditional expert forecasting.
Key Points
- •Commercialized spinoff from the academic Good Judgment Project, which won IARPA's forecasting tournament by large margins.
- •Trains and deploys 'superforecasters' - individuals who consistently outperform experts and prediction markets on complex questions.
- •Applies probabilistic thinking and structured forecasting methods to reduce uncertainty in high-stakes decisions.
- •Relevant to AI governance and policy by providing rigorous forecasting on AI development timelines and risk scenarios.
- •Offers forecasting-as-a-service to governments, corporations, and research institutions seeking calibrated predictions.
Cited by 2 pages
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Good Judgment (Forecasting) | Organization | 50.0 |
| Philip Tetlock | Person | 73.0 |
Cached Content Preview
HTTP 200Fetched Mar 20, 20269 KB
About
# Superforecasting will change the way you think about the future
Join innovators around the world who are embracing a better way to make forecasts with unprecedented accuracy and precision.
## From groundbreaking theory to powerhouse practice
In 2011, IARPA—the US intelligence community’s equivalent to DARPA—launched a massive competition to identify cutting-edge methods to forecast geopolitical events. Four years, 500 questions, and over a million forecasts later, the Good Judgment Project (GJP)—led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania—emerged as the undisputed victor in the tournament. GJP’s forecasts were so accurate that they even outperformed intelligence analysts with access to classified data.
Good Judgment Inc is now making this winning approach to harnessing the wisdom of the crowd available for commercial use. Our clients benefit from the externally validated forecasting methodology that made the Good Judgment Project so successful.
Today, Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters deliver unparalleled accuracy on forecasting questions across the political, economic and social spectrum. And, we train others to apply this evidence-based methodology within their own teams.
## Introducing the Superforecasters
One Good Judgment Project discovery has captured more attention than all others: the Superforecasters.
GJP research found compelling evidence that some people are exceptionally skilled at assigning realistic probabilities to possible outcomes—even on topics outside their primary subject-matter training. We call these people **Superforecasters**. Over the four years of the IARPA forecasting tournament and across hundreds of questions, they demonstrated a ratio of skill vs. luck that rivals professional athletes. Since the conclusion of government research in 2015, Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters have beaten every challenger they’ve faced.
Our cofounder, Philip Tetlock, profiled several of these talented forecasters in his New York Times bestseller, _[Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction](https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23995360-superforecasting)_. He described the attributes they share—including open-minded thinking and a conviction that forecasting is a skill to be cultivated, rather than merely an inborn aptitude.
Today, Good Judgment maintains a global network of elite Superforecasters who collaborate to tackle our clients’ forecasting questions with unparalleled accuracy. We continue to grow this network by identifying and recruiting fresh talent from our public forecasting platform, [Good Judgment Open](https://www.gjopen.com/). And, we train others to apply the methods that make our Superforecasters so accurate.
Not everyone can be a Superforecaster®. But, almost everyone who is willing to invest the necessary time and effort can become much better at forecasting. That’s good news for those who must make decisions in an increasingly complex
... (truncated, 9 KB total)Resource ID:
86ee305e862c487f | Stable ID: YzRiMDM4ZT