Pioneered forecasting tournaments demonstrating that systematic methods outperform expert intuition; identified "superforecasters" with superior accuracy
Key Publications
Expert Political Judgment (2005), Superforecasting (2015)
Institutional Affiliation
Leonore Annenberg University Professor at University of Pennsylvania (Wharton and Psychology)
Major Projects
Good JudgmentOrganizationGood Judgment (Forecasting)Good Judgment Inc. is a commercial forecasting organization that emerged from successful IARPA research, demonstrating that trained 'superforecasters' can outperform intelligence analysts and predi...Quality: 50/100 Project (IARPA tournament winner 2011-2015), Forecasting Research InstituteOrganizationForecasting Research Institute (FRI)FRI's XPT tournament found superforecasters gave 9.7% average probability to AI progress outcomes that occurred vs 24.6% from domain experts, suggesting superforecasters systematically underestimat...Quality: 55/100
Influence on AI Safety
Methods applied to existential risk assessment; adversarial collaboration on AI forecasting; EA community adoption of forecasting practices
Key Finding
Most expert predictions perform no better than chance; "fox-like" integrative thinkers outperform "hedgehog" theorists