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Philip Tetlock

Also known as: Philip Tetlock (Forecasting Pioneer)

Pioneered science of superforecasting; authored Expert Political Judgment (2005) and Superforecasting (2015); co-led Good Judgment Project winning IARPA tournament 2011-2015; identified superforecasters outperforming intelligence analysts by 60-85%

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Current Role
Leonore Annenberg University Professor
Organization
Good Judgment (Forecasting)
Born
1954
Age ~72

Organization Roles1

Forecasting Research Institute (FRI)FounderCurrent
President & Chief Scientist

Education

B.A. Psychology, University of British Columbia (1975); M.A. Psychology (1976); Ph.D. Psychology, Yale University (1979)

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Quick Assessment

DimensionAssessment
Primary AchievementPioneered forecasting tournaments demonstrating that systematic methods outperform expert intuition; identified "superforecasters" with superior accuracy
Key PublicationsExpert Political Judgment (2005), Superforecasting (2015)
Institutional AffiliationLeonore Annenberg University Professor at University of Pennsylvania (Wharton and Psychology)
Major ProjectsGood Judgment Project (IARPA tournament winner 2011-2015), Forecasting Research Institute
Influence on AI SafetyMethods applied to existential risk assessment; adversarial collaboration on AI forecasting; EA community adoption of forecasting practices
Key FindingMost expert predictions perform no better than chance; "fox-like" integrative thinkers outperform "hedgehog" theorists
SourceLink
Official Websiteen.wikiquote.org
Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
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Links

Wikipedia

Facts

6
People
Employed ByGood Judgment (Forecasting)
Role / TitleLeonore Annenberg University Professor
Biographical
Notable ForPioneered science of superforecasting; authored Expert Political Judgment (2005) and Superforecasting (2015); co-led Good Judgment Project winning IARPA tournament 2011-2015; identified superforecasters outperforming intelligence analysts by 60-85%
EducationB.A. Psychology, University of British Columbia (1975); M.A. Psychology (1976); Ph.D. Psychology, Yale University (1979)
Birth Year1954
Wikipediahttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_E._Tetlock
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