Epoch AI: AI Trends & Metrics Dashboard
webCredibility Rating
High quality. Established institution or organization with editorial oversight and accountability.
Rating inherited from publication venue: Epoch AI
Epoch AI's trends dashboard is a key empirical reference for AI safety researchers assessing capability trajectories and compute scaling; useful for grounding risk assessments and policy arguments in observed data.
Metadata
Summary
Epoch AI's trends page provides data-driven tracking of key metrics in AI development, including compute scaling, model capabilities, and training trends. It serves as a quantitative reference for understanding the trajectory of AI progress across multiple dimensions. The resource aggregates empirical data to help researchers and policymakers assess the pace and direction of AI advancement.
Key Points
- •Tracks historical and current trends in AI training compute, model size, and benchmark performance over time
- •Provides empirical data relevant to forecasting AI capability thresholds and potential risk timelines
- •Useful for grounding AI safety and governance discussions in quantitative evidence about development pace
- •Covers trends across multiple modalities and model types, offering a broad view of the AI landscape
- •Maintained by Epoch AI, a research organization focused on understanding and forecasting AI progress
Cited by 5 pages
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Large Language Models | Concept | 62.0 |
| AI Compute Scaling Metrics | Analysis | 78.0 |
| AI Capability Threshold Model | Analysis | 72.0 |
| Epoch AI | Organization | 51.0 |
| Compute Thresholds | Concept | 91.0 |
Cached Content Preview
AI Trends | Epoch AI
Latest
Publications & Commentary
Papers & Reports
Newsletter
Podcast
Data & Resources
Datasets
Overview
Benchmarking
Models
Frontier Data Centers
Hardware
Companies
Chip Sales
Polling
Resources
AI Trends & Statistics
Data Insights
Projects
FrontierMath
GATE Playground
Distributed Training
Model Counts
About
About Us
Our Team
Careers
Consultations
Our Funding
Donate
Contact
Search epoch.ai
Search
Enter a query to search for results
Placeholder
Model Performance
AI Companies
Hardware
Training runs
Data Centers
Machine Learning Trends
A dashboard curating key trends and statistics on artificial intelligence, showcasing the growth of this technology and offering a glimpse into its future.
Last updated on Dec 9, 2025
Share
Cite
Display growth values in:
The Epoch Capabilities index
Confident
+15.5 ECI per year
Model capabilities have grown faster since the start of 2024. 90% confidence interval: +13 to +18 ECI per year.
Compute stock growth
Likely
199.5
x /year
The total computing power of the stock of NVIDIA chips is growing by . 90% confidence interval: to .
FLOP/s per dollar
Confident
23.4
x /year
Performance per dollar improves by each year . 90% confidence interval: to .
Training compute
Confident
100000.0
x /year
Training compute for frontier language models has been growing by since 2020. 90% confidence interval: to .
Algorithmic progress
Likely
1000.0
% /year
The compute required to achieve a given level of prediction accuracy in language model pre-training is declining at a rate of . 90% confidence interval: to .
Lar
... (truncated, 14 KB total)b029bfc231e620cc | Stable ID: ZDMyMmEwOW