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Press & News - Good Judgment Inc.
webCredibility Rating
3/5
Good(3)Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.
Rating inherited from publication venue: Good Judgment
Good Judgment Inc. applies superforecasting techniques that some AI safety researchers use to estimate AI development timelines and risk probabilities; this press page is primarily a corporate media archive with limited direct AI safety content.
Metadata
Importance: 22/100press releasehomepage
Summary
Good Judgment Inc. is the commercial spinoff of the Good Judgment Project, a superforecasting research initiative that emerged from IARPA's Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program. This press page aggregates media coverage and news about the company's forecasting products and research. Good Judgment's work on calibrated probability estimation is relevant to AI safety efforts around forecasting AI development timelines and risks.
Key Points
- •Good Judgment Inc. commercializes superforecasting methods developed through the Good Judgment Project, founded by Philip Tetlock
- •The organization provides probabilistic forecasting tools and training used by governments and corporations for strategic decision-making
- •Superforecasting methodology is relevant to AI safety for estimating timelines, risk probabilities, and policy outcomes
- •Press coverage reflects growing institutional interest in structured forecasting for complex geopolitical and technological questions
- •The company's Superforecaster network and methods inform efforts to reduce uncertainty in long-range forecasting relevant to existential risk
Cited by 2 pages
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Good Judgment (Forecasting) | Organization | 50.0 |
| Philip Tetlock | Person | 73.0 |
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[About](https://goodjudgment.com/about/ "Go to About.") \> Press & News
# The latest buzz on Superforecasting
Superforecasting's enormous potential has caught the attention of businesses, government, and the press.
Read the latest news about Superforecasting and Good Judgment.
The Good Judgment team is available for interviews, speaking opportunities, and other engagements.
Please contact us to discuss.
**Media Contact:**
[info@goodjudgment.com](mailto: info@goodjudgment.com)
## Featured Stories
- #### Kalshi and Polymarket Create New Competition for Professional Economists
_The New York Times (February 2026)_
While exploring prediction markets, professional economists, and the future of forecasting, this NYT article says, “It may also be true that neither individual experts nor a collective of thousands are the best at predicting the future. Over the past decade, a group called Good Judgment has developed a model of selecting people with good track records of figuring out what will happen.”
Our CEO Dr. Warren Hatch discusses why Superforecasters have an edge when the data is sparse and the environment is in flux.
[Read More](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/business/economy/forecasts-prediction-markets-economy.html "Read More")
- #### What the “superforecasters” predict for major events in 2026
_The World Ahead 2026, The Economist (November 2025)_
Following another successful collaboration last year, Good Judgment’s Superforecasters were invited to contribute their forecasts to _The Economist_’s forward-looking guide, _The World Ahead 2026_. Their forecasts focus on the chance of an in-orbit fuel transfer between two Starship vehicles, the likely balance of power after the US midterms, US tariffs, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and even a Nobel Peace Prize winner.
[Read More](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2025/11/12/what-the-superforecasters-predict-for-major-events-in-2026 "Read More")
- #### Monetary Policy Radar: ‘Superforecasters’ tend to beat the market
_Financial Times (October 2025) (\*requires access to Monetary Policy Radar)_
“Superforecasters have continued to beat the market so far this year when it comes to anticipating Fed decisions, as they had also in 2023 and 2024,” writes _Financial Times_ data journalist Joel Suss for FT’s exclusive Monetary Policy Radar service.
“At the FT’s Monetary Policy Radar, we’ve been continuously tracking how superforecasters stack up against financial markets when it comes to anticipating central bank interest rate decisions. We last crunched the numbers at the beginning of this year, concluding that superforecasters continued to have the edge over the futures market in anticipating what the FOMC will do. Looking at the data since January, it is clear that the superforecasters continue to beat the market.”
[Read More](https://www.ft.com/content/595250d1-2a07-40aa-b980-2f0da9c5eb20 "Read More")
## Publication Downloads
- ### [“Superforecasters: A Decade of Stocha
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