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Metaculus AGI questions
webCredibility Rating
3/5
Good(3)Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.
Rating inherited from publication venue: Metaculus
Metaculus is a widely-used forecasting platform; its AGI question set is frequently cited in AI safety discussions as a barometer for community beliefs about AGI timelines and transformative AI risk.
Metadata
Importance: 55/100tool pagereference
Summary
A curated collection of community forecasting questions on Metaculus specifically focused on AGI timelines, capabilities, and related developments. Users submit probabilistic predictions aggregated into community forecasts, providing crowd-sourced estimates on when and how AGI might emerge.
Key Points
- •Aggregates probabilistic crowd forecasts on AGI timelines and key capability milestones
- •Questions cover topics like AGI arrival dates, transformative AI impacts, and specific benchmark achievements
- •Community forecasts serve as a living reference for tracking shifting consensus on AGI expectations
- •Useful for comparing expert vs. crowd predictions on AI development trajectories
- •Provides quantified uncertainty estimates rather than point predictions, aiding risk assessment
Cited by 1 page
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Prediction Markets (AI Forecasting) | Approach | 56.0 |
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[**592** comments](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/#comments)
**1.7k** forecasters
#### When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
11 Apr 2028
202020202020202020212021202220232024202720302036204220552074209621412200
Key Factors
- ↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals
- China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI
- ↓ grid/permit delays & export controls on HBM/nodes
[**11** comments](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26326/5y-after-agi-universal-basic-income/#comments)
**94** forecasters
#### Five years after AGI, will there be universal basic income?
35%chance
10% this week
Key Factors
- redistribution of wealth
- well being of people
- Framing UBI as human flourishing, not survival
[**1** comment](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26245/5y-after-agi-biological-human-population/#comments)
**41** forecasters
#### Five years after AGI, what will be the biological human population?
Current estimate
8.79B people
5B15B
[**21** comments](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41131/top-arc-agi-2-score-in-2026/#comments)
**724** forecasters
#### What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?
Current estimate
91.4
54100
[**650** comments](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/#comments)
**1.8k** forecasters
#### When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Aug 2032
20202079
Key Factors
- ↑ reliable
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