Transformative AI Date
webCredibility Rating
Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.
Rating inherited from publication venue: Metaculus
This Metaculus question is a widely-cited crowdsourced forecast on transformative AI timelines, useful for researchers and policymakers seeking data-driven estimates of when AI might radically accelerate technological progress.
Metadata
Summary
A Metaculus forecasting question asking community predictors to estimate when transformative AI will arrive, defined as AI capable of accelerating scientific and technological progress to a degree that would otherwise take decades. The question aggregates probabilistic forecasts from many forecasters to produce a community prediction with associated confidence intervals.
Key Points
- •Tracks community predictions on when AI will become 'transformative' — capable of compressing decades of progress into years
- •Uses Metaculus's aggregation methods to combine many individual forecasters' probability distributions into a single estimate
- •Provides a quantitative, regularly updated signal on expert and superforecaster expectations for transformative AI timelines
- •Serves as a reference point for AI safety planning, policy, and research prioritization based on anticipated timelines
- •Complements other timeline forecasts (e.g., AGI, TAI from Epoch, Open Philanthropy) as part of the broader forecasting ecosystem
Cited by 1 page
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| AI Timelines | Concept | 95.0 |
Cached Content Preview
Transformative AI Date 63 comments 169 forecasters When will we have transformative AI? Current estimate May 2040 Share Predict Comments Timeline Key Factors Question Info Timeline 1d 1w 2m all Resolution Criteria Key Factors No key factors yet Add some that might influence this forecast. Add key factor Background Info Follow embed Authors : will_aldred Matthew_Barnett Opened : Nov 8, 2023 Closes : Jan 1, 2050 Scheduled resolution : Jan 1, 2100 Spot Scoring Time : Nov 11, 2023 AGI Outcomes Economy & Business Computing and Math Artificial Intelligence Similar Questions How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time? 4.07 years (-1.24 - 16.4) 4.07 years (-1.24 - 16.4) 66 forecasters In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year? Oct 2059 (Aug 2038 - 2134) Oct 2059 (Aug 2038 - 2134) 114 forecasters Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run? 3.7×10²⁹ FLOP (1.4×10²⁸ - 9.3×10³¹) 3.7×10²⁹ FLOP (1.4×10²⁸ - 9.3×10³¹) 7 forecasters Show More Questions
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