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New Open Philanthropy Grantmaking Program: Forecasting
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Coefficient Giving
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This announcement marks forecasting becoming a formal philanthropic cause area at Open Philanthropy, relevant to AI safety researchers interested in improving epistemic foundations for high-stakes decisions including those related to global catastrophic risks.
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ForecastingExistential riskAnnouncements and updatesCoefficient GivingOrganization updatesGrantmaking
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Summary
Open Philanthropy announces forecasting as an official grantmaking focus area as of January 2024, with a dedicated two-person team. The program aims to improve high-stakes decision-making by funding forecasting adoption among decision-makers and producing accurate forecasts on consequential questions across both Global Health and Wellbeing and Global Catastrophic Risks portfolios.
Key Points
- •Open Philanthropy establishes a dedicated forecasting grantmaking team led by Benjamin Tereick and Javier Prieto as of January 2024.
- •Prior grants were made to Metaculus, Forecasting Research Institute, and ARLIS; this expands that work with dedicated staff capacity.
- •Program targets both increasing forecasting adoption by decision-makers and generating accurate forecasts on questions influencing high-stakes choices.
- •Team covers both internal Open Phil forecasting processes and external grantmaking across GHW and GCR portfolios.
- •Open Phil remains uncertain about most promising project types and plans to fund diverse approaches while publishing insights from internal processes.
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New Open Philanthropy Grantmaking Program: Forecasting — EA Forum
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by Coefficient Giving Feb 19 2024 2 min read 58 92
Forecasting Existential risk Announcements and updates Coefficient Giving Organization updates Grantmaking Frontpage This is a linkpost for https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/new-grantmaking-program-forecasting/ Written by Benjamin Tereick
Edit: several comments here question the value of forecasting as a philanthropic cause — see this comment for a reply.
We are happy to announce that we have added forecasting as an official grantmaking focus area . As of January 2024, the forecasting team comprises two full-time employees: myself and Javier Prieto . In August 2023, I joined Open Phil to lead our forecasting grantmaking and internal processes. Prior to that, I worked on forecasts of existential risk and the long-term future at the Global Priorities Institute . Javier recently joined the forecasting team in a full-time capacity from Luke Muehlhauser’s AI governance team, which was previously responsible for our forecasting grantmaking.
While we are just now launching a dedicated cause area, Open Phil has long endorsed forecasting as an important way of improving the epistemic foundations of our decisions and the decisions of others. We have made several grants to support the forecasting community in the last few years, e.g., to Metaculus , the Forecasting Research Institute , and ARLIS . Moreover, since the launch of Open Phil, grantmakers have often made predictions about core outcomes for grants they approve.
Now with increased staff capacity, the forecasting team wants to build on this work. Our main goal is to help realize the promise of forecasting as a way to improve high-stakes decisions, as outlined in our focus area description . We are excited both about projects aiming to increase the adoption rate of forecasting as a tool by relevant decision-makers, and about projects that provide accurate forecasts on questions that could plausibly influence the choices of these decision-makers. We are interested in such work across both of our portfolios : Global Health and Wellbeing and Global Catastrophic Risks. [1]
We are as of yet uncertain about the most promising type of project in the forecasting focus area, and we will likely fund a variety of different approaches. We will also continue our commitment to forecasting research and to the general support of the forecasting community, as we consider both to be prerequisites for high-impact forecasting. Supported by other Open Phil researchers, we plan to continue exploring the most plausible theories of change for forecasting. I aim to regularly update the forecasting community on the development of our thinking.
Besides grantmaking, the forecasting
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