Metaculus Forecast: When Will AI-Driven Human Extinction Happen?
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Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.
Rating inherited from publication venue: Metaculus
A Metaculus prediction market question aggregating community forecasts on AI extinction risk timelines; useful as a quantitative reference point for how forecasters assess extreme AI risk, though crowd forecasts may not reflect expert consensus.
Metadata
Summary
A Metaculus community forecasting question asking when (if ever) AI will cause human extinction, aggregating probabilistic predictions from forecasters. The question serves as a crowd-sourced estimate of AI existential risk timelines. Community predictions and reasoning provide a snapshot of how informed forecasters assess AI-driven extinction risk.
Key Points
- •Aggregates probabilistic forecasts from the Metaculus forecasting community on AI-caused human extinction timelines
- •Represents crowd-sourced quantification of one of the most extreme AI existential risk scenarios
- •Forecaster reasoning and comments provide insight into differing assumptions about AI risk trajectories
- •The question structure forces explicit probability estimates rather than vague qualitative assessments
- •Serves as a reference point for comparing expert vs. crowd estimates of catastrophic AI risk
Cached Content Preview
[**7** comments](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10721/date-of-ai-driven-human-extinction/#comments) **73** forecasters # If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die? Current estimate Apr 2048 20222300 Share Predict CommentsTimelineKey FactorsQuestion Info Timeline 1d1w2mall 24 Apr 2022Mar 2043Feb 2064208524 Apr 2022Mar 2043Feb 20642085 Jan 21Jan 23Jan 25Jan 27Jan 29Jan 31Feb 02Feb 04Feb 06Feb 08Feb 10Feb 12Feb 14Feb 16Feb 18Feb 20Feb 22Feb 24Feb 26Feb 28Mar 02Mar 04Mar 06Mar 08Mar 10Mar 12Mar 14Mar 16Mar 18Mar 20Apr 2048 Resolution Criteria Key Factors No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.Add key factor Background Info Followembed Authors: [Matthew\_Barnett](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/) Opened:Apr 21, 2022Apr 21, 2022 Closes:Jan 1, 2250Jan 1, 2250 Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2300Jan 1, 2300 Spot Scoring Time:Apr 23, 2022Apr 23, 2022 [Computing and Math](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?categories=computing-and-math&for_main_feed=false) [Artificial Intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?categories=artificial-intelligence&for_main_feed=false) Similar Questions [**Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?**\\ \\ 30%chance\\ \\ 324](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ai-catastrophe-to-cause-near-extinction/) [**If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?** \\ \\ Jan 2037 \\ \\ (19 Jul 2030 - Jul 2053)\\ \\ Jan 2037 \\ \\ (19 Jul 2030 - Jul 2053)\\ \\ **165** forecasters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/date-of-ai-catastrophe-if-occurring-by-2100/) [**Five years after AGI, will humans be extinct?**\\ \\ 1%chance\\ \\ 145](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26244/five-years-after-agi-will-humans-be-extinct/) Show More Questions ### We use cookies 🍪 to understand how you use Metaculus and to improve your experience. Learn more about how we use cookies in our [Privacy Policy](https://www.metaculus.com/privacy-policy/) Necessary onlyCustomize Accept and close
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