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Metaculus (Dec 2024)
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This Metaculus question is commonly cited in AI timeline discussions as a crowd-sourced benchmark for when weakly general AI might emerge, useful for calibrating expectations against community consensus.
Metadata
Importance: 45/100wiki pagereference
Summary
A Metaculus community forecasting question tracking predictions for when weakly general AI will be publicly known. Aggregates probabilistic estimates from forecasters on a key AI development milestone, providing crowd-sourced timeline predictions updated through December 2024.
Key Points
- •Community prediction market tracking the expected arrival date of weakly general AI as a public milestone
- •Aggregates forecasts from many contributors, providing a probability distribution over time rather than a single estimate
- •Serves as a reference point for AI timeline discussions, reflecting evolving community consensus as capabilities advance
- •Weakly general AI is defined as a system capable of performing most cognitive tasks at human level or above
- •Forecast updated through December 2024, capturing recent shifts in expectations driven by rapid AI progress
Cited by 2 pages
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| The Case For AI Existential Risk | Argument | 66.0 |
| Long-Timelines Technical Worldview | Concept | 91.0 |
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[**578** comments](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/#comments)
**1.7k** forecasters
# When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
20 Feb 2028
202020202020202020212021202220232024202720302036204220552074209621412200
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Top Key Factors
View all (5)
↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals
Impact
later
Strength
2 votes
China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI
Impact
Earlier
Strength
28 votes
↓ grid/permit delays & export controls on HBM/nodes
Impact
later
Strength
1 vote
↑ multi-year compute/colo contracts confirmed via filings
Impact
later
Strength
1 vote
AI become student of arts university in Vienna
Impact
later
Strength
23 votes
CommentsTimelineKey FactorsQuestion Info
Timeline
1d1w2mall
09 Oct 202503 Sep 202717 Mar 2030May 2033Jul 203609 Oct 202503 Sep 202717 Mar 2030May 2033Jul 2036
Dec 27Dec 29Dec 31Jan 02Jan 04Jan 06Jan 08Jan 10Jan 12Jan 14Jan 16Jan 18Jan 20Jan 22Jan 24Jan 26Jan 28Jan 30Feb 01Feb 03Feb 05Feb 07Feb 09Feb 11Feb 13Feb 15Feb 17Feb 19Feb 21Feb 23Feb 2520 Feb 2028
Resolution Criteria
For these purposes we will thus define "AI system" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.
- Able to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/).
- Able to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the ["Winogrande" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%
- Be able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages.
- Be able to learn the classic Atari game "Montezuma's revenge" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).)
By "unified" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of "introspection" so much as a provision that the system _not_ simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many
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