Metaculus resolution council

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Metaculus·metaculus.com/help/faq/#resolution

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Rating inherited from publication venue: Metaculus

Metaculus is a forecasting platform frequently used by the AI safety community to track AI development timelines and safety-relevant predictions; this FAQ explains its resolution governance, relevant for those using Metaculus forecasts as evidence or inputs into safety analysis.

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Importance: 25/100documentationreference

Summary

This page explains Metaculus's resolution council mechanism, which governs how forecasting questions are resolved when outcomes are ambiguous or disputed. It describes the governance structure for maintaining integrity and fairness in a prediction platform used for aggregating probabilistic forecasts on important future events.

Key Points

•Metaculus uses a resolution council to adjudicate ambiguous or contested question resolutions on its forecasting platform.
•The resolution process is designed to maintain forecaster trust and platform credibility through transparent governance.
•Metaculus aggregates crowd-sourced probabilistic forecasts on topics including AI development timelines and safety-relevant events.
•Clear resolution criteria are essential for prediction markets and forecasting platforms to function as reliable information aggregation tools.
•The FAQ serves as a reference for forecasters and question authors on dispute resolution procedures.

Cited by 1 page

Page	Type	Quality
Prediction Markets (AI Forecasting)	Approach	56.0

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# Metaculus FAQ

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## Basics

- [What is Metaculus?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#whatismetaculus)
- [What is forecasting?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#whatisforecasting)
- [When is forecasting valuable?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#whenforecastingvaluable)
- [Why should I be a forecaster?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#aim)
- [Who created Metaculus?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#whocreated)
- [What are Metaculus Tournaments and Question Series?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#whattournaments)
- [Is Metaculus a prediction market?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#predmarket)
- [Are Metaculus questions Polls?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#justpolling)

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## Metaculus Questions

- [What sorts of questions are allowed, and what makes a good question?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#whatsort)
- [Who creates the questions, and who decides which get posted?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#whocreates)
- [Who can edit questions?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#whoedits)
- [How can I get my own question posted?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#question-submission)
- [What can I do if a question I submitted has been pending for a long time?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#pending-question)
- [What can I do if a question should be resolved but isn't?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#admins-resolution)
- [Where are my private questions?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#question-private)
- [What are the rules and guidelines for comments and discussions?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#comments)
- [What do "credible source" and "before \[date X\]" and such phrases mean exactly?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions)
- [What types of questions are there?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#question-types)
- [What are question groups?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#question-groups)
- [What are Conditional Pairs?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#conditionals)
- [How do I find certain questions on Metaculus?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#navigation-and-filtering)

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## Question Resolution

- [What are the "open date", "close date" and "resolve date?"](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#closers)
- [What timezone is used for questions?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#timezone)
- [Who decides the resolution to a question?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#who-resolves)
- [What are "Ambiguous" and "Annulled" resolutions?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#ambiguous-annulled)
- [Do all questions get resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#allres)
- [When will a question be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#whenresolve)
- [Is the background material used for question resolution?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#resolvebackground)
- [What happens if the resolution criteria of a question is unclear or suboptimal?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#unclearresolve)
- [Can questions be re-resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#reresolve)
- [What happens if a question gets resolved in the real world prior to the close time?](https://www.metaculus.co

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