Skip to content
Longterm Wiki

About Metaculus

web
Metaculus·metaculus.com/about/

Credibility Rating

3/5
Good(3)

Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.

Rating inherited from publication venue: Metaculus

Metaculus is a forecasting platform relevant to AI safety through its aggregation of predictions on AI development timelines, risks, and governance questions, serving as epistemic infrastructure for reasoning about complex global challenges.

Metadata

Importance: 42/100homepage

Summary

Metaculus is an online forecasting and prediction aggregation platform operating as a Public Benefit Corporation, with over 3 million predictions across nearly 22,000 questions. Its mission is to build epistemic infrastructure enabling the global community to model and navigate complex challenges. It supports forecasting research communities and informs decision-making for public-good stakeholders.

Key Points

  • •Metaculus has aggregated over 3.1 million predictions across 21,879 questions with 11 years of forecasting history.
  • •Operates as a Public Benefit Corporation committed to fostering forecasting research and increasing public access to forecast information.
  • •Mission focuses on building epistemic infrastructure for modeling and navigating the world's most important challenges.
  • •Supports stakeholders serving the public good by informing their decision-making through aggregated forecasts.
  • •Relevant to AI safety as a tool for tracking AI development timelines, risk estimates, and policy outcomes.

Cached Content Preview

HTTP 200Fetched Jun 1, 20265 KB
About Metaculus

 

 
 
 
 

 Nov
 DEC
 Jan
 

 
 

 
 31
 
 

 
 

 2024
 2025
 2026
 

 
 
 

 

 

 
 
success

 
fail

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

 About this capture
 

 

 

 

 

 

 
COLLECTED BY

 

 

 
 Organization: Archive Team
 

 

 Formed in 2009, the Archive Team (not to be confused with the archive.org Archive-It Team) is a rogue archivist collective dedicated to saving copies of rapidly dying or deleted websites for the sake of history and digital heritage. The group is 100% composed of volunteers and interested parties, and has expanded into a large amount of related projects for saving online and digital history.


History is littered with hundreds of conflicts over the future of a community, group, location or business that were "resolved" when one of the parties stepped ahead and destroyed what was there. With the original point of contention destroyed, the debates would fall to the wayside. Archive Team believes that by duplicated condemned data, the conversation and debate can continue, as well as the richness and insight gained by keeping the materials. Our projects have ranged in size from a single volunteer downloading the data to a small-but-critical site, to over 100 volunteers stepping forward to acquire terabytes of user-created data to save for future generations.


The main site for Archive Team is at archiveteam.org and contains up to the date information on various projects, manifestos, plans and walkthroughs.


This collection contains the output of many Archive Team projects, both ongoing and completed. Thanks to the generous providing of disk space by the Internet Archive, multi-terabyte datasets can be made available, as well as in use by the Wayback Machine, providing a path back to lost websites and work. 


Our collection has grown to the point of having sub-collections for the type of data we acquire. If you are seeking to browse the contents of these collections, the Wayback Machine is the best first stop. Otherwise, you are free to dig into the stacks to see what you may find.


The Archive Team Panic Downloads are full pulldowns of currently extant websites, meant to serve as emergency backups for needed sites that are in danger of closing, or which will be missed dearly if suddenly lost due to hard drive crashes or server failures. 

 

 

 

 
 
Collection: Archive Team: URLs

 

 

 

 

 
TIMESTAMPS

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Wayback Machine - http://web.archive.org/web/20251231185625/https://www.metaculus.com/about/

 

Questions

Tournaments

Services

News

Questions

Tournaments

Questions

Questions

More

Log inSign Up

a/文

Log inSign Up

About Metaculus

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance.

Predictions3,165,504

Questions21,879

Resolved Questions9,632

Years of Predictions11

Metaculus is a Public Benefit Corporation.

This organizational structure

... (truncated, 5 KB total)
Resource ID: 02674cfc00a1fb8e | Stable ID: sid_9cPWWkwaLw