Eli Lifland – AI Safety Researcher & Forecaster

Eli Lifland 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 Me elsewhere

 
 Blog 

 Twitter 

 

 
 Google Scholar 
 

 Linkedin 

 Github 

 Anonymous Feedback 

 
 

 
 Career

 I cofounded the AI Futures Project and work as a researcher there on AGI forecasting and governance. 
 I've worked on the AI 2027 scenario and the AI Futures Model , which predicts AI timelines and takeoff speeds. 
 I advise Sage , an organization that is as of 2026, primarily focused on the AI Village .
 I led the creation of the 2025 and 2026 AI forecasting surveys .
 

 I previously worked as a software engineer at
 Ought on the AI research assistant
 Elicit .
 
 
 Selected work

 Some work that I've (co-)authored that I am happiest about:
 
 
 AI 2027: A detailed AGI scenario forecast 
 

 
 AI Futures Model: Timelines and Takeoff 
 

 
 My take on What We Owe the Future 
 

 
 Eli's review of "Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?" 
 

 
 2025 and 2026 AI forecasting surveys 
 

 
 
 
 Improving outcomes from superhuman AGIs

 I've decided to work on improving outcomes from superhuman AGIs
 because I think it's both the most important problem we face, and furthermore I find it interesting. 
 If you'd like to help, I've written a post with advice: What you can do about AI 2027 .
 
 

 
 I also consider myself part of the
 effective altruism 
 movement, which aims to use reason and evidence to improve the world as
 much as possible (this doesn't mean I endorse every action prominent effective altruists or effective altruism orginazations take!). I've taken the
 Giving What We Can Pledge 
 to donate at least 10% of my lifetime income to whatever I think is the most effective use of my money,
 and ideas I learned about due to effective altruism
 have had a large impact on my career decisions.
 
 
 Forecasting

 I'm interested in judgmental forecasting as a route to improved decision
 making. I recommend
 Superforecasting 
 for an introduction, but I think it overclaims in some ways (e.g.
 regarding
 generalists vs. expertise ). I co-lead the
 Samotsvety Forecasting team. My
 forecasting track record is described
 here . Some takes on forecasting/epistemics interventions as of March 2024 here .
 

 
 AI robustness research

 During my last year of college, I co-created
 TextAttack , a Python
 framework for adversarial attacks in NLP. See the
 paper or
 blog post . We also published a
 paper arguing for
 stricter evaluation of adversarial examples in NLP. While at Ought, I
 co-created the RAFT Benchmark .
 
 
 Education

 I have degrees in computer science and economics from the
 University of Virginia .
 

 
 Miscellany

 Battlecode

 I competed in Battlecode for
 several years, a competition for high-school and college students to
 program the best bot to win a strategy game. My team advanced to the top
 4 3 out of 6 years. See
 the README here for more.

 Clash Royale

 During the end of high school and beginning of college, I played a lot of Clash Royale, a 
 mobile game. I did well in a

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