NunoSempere - EA Forum

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EA Forum·forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/nunosempere

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Profile page of Nuno Sempere, a prominent forecaster and researcher whose work on quantification, forecasting, and existential risk estimation is relevant to AI safety decision-making and prioritization.

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Importance: 30/100homepage

Summary

This is the EA Forum profile of Nuno Sempere, a forecaster and researcher affiliated with Sentinel and formerly QURI. He is known for work on forecasting, quantitative estimation of value, and tools like Metaforecast.org. He now primarily publishes at nunosempere.com rather than the EA Forum.

Key Points

•Nuno Sempere is Director/Head of Foresight at Sentinel, a team focused on anticipating and responding to large-scale risks.
•He is a member of Samotsvety, described as one of the best superforecasting teams, winning CSET-Foretell by a large margin.
•He built Metaforecast.org at QURI, a tool aggregating predictions from many forecasting platforms.
•He has a series on 'Estimating Value' and runs a Forecasting Newsletter with thousands of subscribers.
•He previously held fellowships at FHI and FTX EA Fellowship, and worked on longtermism, forecasting, and quantification research.

Cited by 1 page

Page	Type	Quality
Metaforecast	Project	35.0

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# NunoSempere

Director, Head of Foresight@ Sentinel

13864 karmaJoined Nov 2018

[nunosempere.com/blog](https://nunosempere.com/blog)

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# Bio

I run [Sentinel](https://sentinel-team.org/), a team that seeks to anticipate and respond to large-scale risks. You can read our weekly minutes [here](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/). I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and generally becoming more [formidable](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/07/19/better-harder-faster-stronger/).  I'm also a fairly good forecaster: I started out on predicting on [Good Judgment Open](https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/60948/) and [CSET-Foretell](https://www.cset-foretell.com/memberships/164/scores), but now do most of my forecasting through Samotsvety, of which [Scott Alexander writes](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-31422?s=r):

> Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

* * *

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at [nunosempere.com](https://nunosempere.com/) / [nunosempere.com/blog](https://nunosempere.com/blog) rather than on this forum, because:

- I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
- The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own [minimalistic frontend](https://forum.nunosempere.com/))
- The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on [Estimating Value](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/AbrRsXM2PrCrPShuZ).

* * *

My career has been as follows:

- Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, [Shapley Maximizers.](https://nunosempere.com/consulting/) This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
- I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the [Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/) (QURI). At QURI

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