Metaforecast
unmaintainedForecast aggregation platform combining predictions from 10+ sources into a unified search interface.
Organizations
8| QURI (Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute) | Nonprofit research organization developing tools for probabilistic reasoning, forecasting, and epistemic infrastructure. Key projects include Squiggle (probabilistic programming language), Squiggle Hub (model sharing platform), Metaforecast (forecast aggregation), SquiggleAI (LLM-powered estimation), RoastMyPost (LLM-powered content evaluation), and Guesstimate (spreadsheet for distributions). Founded in 2019 by Ozzie Gooen, evolved from earlier Guesstimate work (2016). Based in Berkeley, CA; primarily remote team of ~3-5 core contributors. Fiscally sponsored by Rethink Priorities. Funded by Survival and Flourishing Fund ($650K through 2022), Future Fund ($200K, 2022), and Long-Term Future Fund (ongoing). EIN 84-3847921. |
| Samotsvety | Elite forecasting group Samotsvety dominated INFER competitions 2020-2022 with relative Brier scores twice as good as competitors, providing influential probabilistic forecasts including 28% TAI by 2030, 60% by 2050, and 25% misaligned AI takeover by 2100. Their work is widely cited in EA/rationalist communities and by policymakers. |
| Good Judgment (Forecasting) | Good Judgment Inc. is a commercial forecasting organization that emerged from successful IARPA research, demonstrating that trained 'superforecasters' can outperform intelligence analysts and prediction markets by 30-72%. While not directly focused on AI safety, their methodology for identifying forecasters and improving collective judgment has significant implications for AI risk assessment. |
| Metaculus | Reputation-based prediction aggregation platform that has become the primary source for AI timeline forecasts, with over 1 million predictions across 15,000+ questions. Created by Anthony Aguirre (FLI/FLF President). |
| Manifold (Prediction Market) | Manifold is a play-money prediction market with millions of predictions and ~2,000 peak daily users, showing AGI by 2030 at ~60% vs Metaculus ~45%. Platform scored Brier 0.0342 on 2024 election (vs Polymarket's 0.0296), demonstrating play-money markets can approach real-money accuracy but with systematic liquidity limitations. |
| Lightning Rod Labs | Lightning Rod Labs is an early-stage AI company using temporal data to train prediction models, claiming 10% returns on prediction markets but with limited independent validation. The company has no apparent connection to AI safety concerns and represents standard commercial AI development rather than safety-oriented work. |
| Polymarket | This is a comprehensive overview of Polymarket as a prediction market platform, covering its history, mechanics, and accuracy, but has minimal relevance to AI safety beyond brief mentions in the EA/forecasting section. While well-documented, it primarily serves as general reference material about a prediction market platform rather than AI safety analysis. |
| Kalshi (Prediction Market) | This is a comprehensive corporate profile of Kalshi, a US prediction market platform that offers some AI safety-related contracts but is primarily focused on sports, politics, and economics. The AI safety relevance is minimal, limited to a few markets on AI research pauses and regulation that show low trading volume and minimal analytical depth. |
People
2| Nuño Sempere | Nuño Sempere is a Spanish superforecaster who co-founded the highly successful Samotsvety forecasting group and now runs Sentinel for global catastrophe early warning. Worked as a Research Fellow at QURI (2020-2023), where he built Metaforecast and contributed extensively to forecasting research. Known for skeptical views on high AI existential risk estimates and critical perspectives on EA institutions. |
| Ozzie Gooen | Founder and Executive Director of QURI (Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute). Created Guesstimate (2016) and leads development of Squiggle, a probabilistic programming language for estimation. Previously worked at the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford. Background in programming and research focused on epistemic tools, forecasting infrastructure, and uncertainty quantification. |
Related Projects
5| Squiggle | Domain-specific programming language for probabilistic estimation with native distribution types and Monte Carlo sampling. |
| Longterm Wiki | A self-referential documentation page describing the Longterm Wiki platform itself—a strategic intelligence tool with ~550 pages, crux mapping of ~50 uncertainties, and quality scoring across 6 dimensions. Features include entity cross-linking, interactive causal diagrams, and structured YAML database layer for structured entity data. |
| ForecastBench | Dynamic, contamination-free benchmark for evaluating LLM forecasting capabilities, published at ICLR 2025. |
| SquiggleAI | LLM-powered tool for generating probabilistic models in Squiggle from natural language descriptions. |
| AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament | Quarterly competition run by Metaculus comparing human Pro Forecasters against AI forecasting bots. |
Related Wiki Pages
Top Related Pages
Organization
QURI (Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute)
QURI develops epistemic tools for probabilistic reasoning and forecasting, with Squiggle as their flagship project—a domain-specific programming la...
Person
Nuño Sempere
Spanish forecaster and researcher who co-founded Samotsvety Forecasting (winning CSET-Foretell by an 'obscene margin') and founded Sentinel, a non-...
Project
Squiggle
A domain-specific programming language for probabilistic estimation that enables complex uncertainty modeling through native distribution types, Mo...
Concept
Epistemic & Forecasting Organizations (Overview)
Organizations advancing forecasting methodology, prediction aggregation, and epistemic infrastructure to improve decision-making on AI safety and e...
Organization
Samotsvety
Elite forecasting group known for dominating prediction tournaments and providing probabilistic forecasts on AI timelines, nuclear risks, and globa...
Key Facts
- Website
- https://metaforecast.org
- Founded Date
- 2021