Philip Tetlock — Notable For: Pioneered science of superforecasting; authored Expert Political Judgment (2005) and Superforecasting (2015); co-led Good Judgment Project winning IARPA tournament 2011-2015; identified superforecasters outperforming intelligence analysts by 60-85%

NoteThe source confirms three of five claim elements: the authorship of Expert Political Judgment (2005), Superforecasting (2015), and co-leadership of the Good Judgment Project. However, the source does not address two specific claims: (1) the Good Judgment Project winning an IARPA tournament during 2011-2015, and (2) superforecasters outperforming intelligence analysts by 60-85%. The source text is from Edge.org and appears to be from around 2015 (when Superforecasting was 'forthcoming'). The claim includes an 'asOf 2026-03' date, which is after the source's apparent publication date, making those specific performance metrics unverifiable from this source. The source does not contradict these claims—it simply does not address them.