Philip Tetlock — Notable For: Pioneered science of superforecasting; authored Expert Political Judgment (2005) and Superforecasting (2015); co-led Good Judgment Project winning IARPA tournament 2011-2015; identified superforecasters outperforming intelligence analysts by 60-85%

NoteThe source confirms three of six claim elements: the two books (Expert Political Judgment 2005, Superforecasting 2015) and co-leadership of Good Judgment Project are all explicitly stated. However, the source does not address: (a) the specific IARPA tournament winning period (2011-2015), (b) the 60-85% outperformance metric relative to intelligence analysts, or (c) the 'as of 2026-03' date qualifier. The source text is from Edge.org and appears to be from around 2015 (when Superforecasting was 'forthcoming'), making it temporally distant from the claim's 'as of 2026-03' reference. The unverified claims about specific performance metrics and tournament dates cannot be confirmed or contradicted by this source alone.