Philip Tetlock — Notable For: Pioneered science of superforecasting; authored Expert Political Judgment (2005) and Superforecasting (2015); co-led Good Judgment Project winning IARPA tournament 2011-2015; identified superforecasters outperforming intelligence analysts by 60-85%

NoteThe source confirms three of five claim elements: the authorship of Expert Political Judgment (2005), Superforecasting (with Dan Gardner, forthcoming September 2015 at time of source), and co-leadership of the Good Judgment Project. However, the source does not address the specific IARPA tournament victory dates (2011-2015) or the 60-85% outperformance metric versus intelligence analysts. The source text excerpt provided does not contain information about these latter two claims, making them unverifiable from this source. The claim's 'as of 2026-03' timestamp is consistent with the source's copyright date (2026), but the specific performance metrics are not discussed in the provided excerpt.