Philip Tetlock — Notable For: Pioneered science of superforecasting; authored Expert Political Judgment (2005) and Superforecasting (2015); co-led Good Judgment Project winning IARPA tournament 2011-2015; identified superforecasters outperforming intelligence analysts by 60-85%

NoteThe source confirms three of five claim elements: the two books with correct years, and the Good Judgment Project co-leadership. However, the source does not address the specific IARPA tournament victory dates (2011-2015) or the 60-85% performance advantage over intelligence analysts. The source text excerpt ends before discussing these specific metrics. The claim's 'as of 2026-03' timestamp is suspicious given the source copyright is 2026 and the page appears to be from an earlier snapshot (Superforecasting listed as 'forthcoming, Sept. 2015'). The unverified elements cannot be contradicted by this source, but they are not confirmed either, making this a partial confirmation.