Metaculus

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  "title": "Metaculus",
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  "lastUpdated": "2026-01-29",
  "dateCreated": "2026-02-15",
  "summary": "Metaculus is a reputation-based forecasting platform with 1M+ predictions showing AGI probability at 25% by 2027 and 50% by 2031 (down from 50 years away in 2020). Analysis finds good short-term calibration (Brier 0.107) but poor calibration on 1+ year horizons; human Pro Forecasters consistently outperform AI bots (p=0.00001 in Q2 2025).",
  "description": "Metaculus is a reputation-based prediction aggregation platform that has become the primary source for AI timeline forecasts.",
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      "text": "EA Forum analysis",
      "url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xF8EWBouJRZpRgFgu/how-does-forecast-quantity-impact-forecast-quality-on-1",
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      "resourceTitle": "How does forecast quantity impact forecast quality on Metaculus?"
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      "text": "announced their first formal collaboration",
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      "text": "Coefficient Giving",
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      "text": "Metaculus AI Progress Tournament",
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      "text": "AGI Timelines Dashboard",
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      "text": "Good Judgment Inc and Metaculus Launch First Collaboration",
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      "resourceTitle": "Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience"
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