Ultimate Outcomes

{
  "id": "outcomes-overview",
  "numericId": "E669",
  "path": "/ai-transition-model/outcomes-overview/",
  "filePath": "ai-transition-model/outcomes-overview.mdx",
  "title": "Ultimate Outcomes",
  "quality": null,
  "importance": null,
  "contentFormat": "article",
  "tractability": null,
  "neglectedness": null,
  "uncertainty": null,
  "causalLevel": null,
  "lastUpdated": "2026-01-03",
  "llmSummary": null,
  "structuredSummary": null,
  "description": "The two ultimate outcomes of the AI transition: avoiding existential catastrophe and ensuring a positive long-term trajectory.",
  "ratings": null,
  "category": "ai-transition-model",
  "subcategory": "outcomes",
  "clusters": [
    "ai-safety"
  ],
  "metrics": {
    "wordCount": 374,
    "tableCount": 2,
    "diagramCount": 1,
    "internalLinks": 6,
    "externalLinks": 0,
    "footnoteCount": 0,
    "bulletRatio": 0.2,
    "sectionCount": 5,
    "hasOverview": false,
    "structuralScore": 8
  },
  "suggestedQuality": 53,
  "updateFrequency": null,
  "evergreen": true,
  "wordCount": 374,
  "unconvertedLinks": [],
  "unconvertedLinkCount": 0,
  "convertedLinkCount": 0,
  "backlinkCount": 0,
  "redundancy": {
    "maxSimilarity": 0,
    "similarPages": []
  }
}

No entity found for "outcomes-overview"

No facts for this entity

No external links

No backlinks

{
  "numericId": "E669",
  "title": "Ultimate Outcomes",
  "description": "The two ultimate outcomes of the AI transition: avoiding existential catastrophe and ensuring a positive long-term trajectory.",
  "sidebar": {
    "order": 0,
    "label": "Overview"
  },
  "lastEdited": "2026-01-03",
  "subcategory": "outcomes"
}

---
numericId: E669
title: Ultimate Outcomes
description: "The two ultimate outcomes of the AI transition: avoiding existential catastrophe and ensuring a positive long-term trajectory."
sidebar:
  order: 0
  label: Overview
lastEdited: "2026-01-03"
subcategory: outcomes
---
import {Mermaid, OutcomesTable, FullModelDiagram, EntityLink} from '@components/wiki';

Ultimate Outcomes represent what we fundamentally care about when thinking about AI's impact on humanity. Unlike <EntityLink id="E674">Scenarios</EntityLink> (which describe intermediate scenarios) or <EntityLink id="__index__/ai-transition-model">parameters</EntityLink> (which measure specific factors), Ultimate Outcomes describe the **final states** we're trying to achieve or avoid.

There are two Ultimate Outcomes:

1. **<EntityLink id="E130">Existential Catastrophe</EntityLink>** — Does catastrophe occur?
2. **<EntityLink id="E194">Long-term Trajectory</EntityLink>** — What's the expected value of the future?

---

## The Two Outcomes

<Mermaid chart={`
flowchart LR
    subgraph Outcomes["What We Ultimately Care About"]
        ACUTE[Existential Catastrophe]
        VALUE[Long-term Trajectory]
    end

    ACUTE -.->|"must avoid to reach"| VALUE

    style ACUTE fill:#ff6b6b
    style VALUE fill:#4ecdc4
`} />

<OutcomesTable />

---

## Why Two Outcomes?

A natural alternative would be three outcomes (adding something like "Transition Smoothness"). Two outcomes are preferable because:

1. **Transition turbulence is a pathway, not an endpoint**: How rough the transition is affects *both* existential catastrophe and long-term trajectory. It belongs in <EntityLink id="E668">Root Factors</EntityLink>.

2. **Cleaner analytical structure**: Two outcomes are genuinely orthogonal:
   - You can have low existential catastrophe but poor long-term trajectory (safe dystopia)
   - You can have high existential catastrophe but good conditional value (high-stakes gamble)

3. **Temporal clarity**: Existential Catastrophe is primarily about the transition period; Long-term Trajectory is about what comes after.

---

## How They Relate

These outcomes are **partially independent**—you can have different combinations:

| Scenario | Existential Catastrophe | Long-term Trajectory | Example |
|----------|------------|----------------|---------|
| Best case | Low | High | Aligned AI, smooth transition, flourishing |
| Safe dystopia | Low | Low | No catastrophe but authoritarian lock-in |
| High-stakes success | High (survived) | High | Near-misses but good outcome |
| Extinction | Very High | N/A | Catastrophe occurs |

This independence means:
- **Different Ultimate Scenarios affect different Ultimate Outcomes**
- **Trade-offs exist**: Some approaches that reduce existential catastrophe might worsen long-term trajectory (e.g., authoritarian control)
- **Both matter**: We shouldn't sacrifice one entirely for the other

---

## How Ultimate Scenarios Flow to Ultimate Outcomes

<FullModelDiagram />

Each ultimate scenario has sub-variants with different probability estimates. See the <EntityLink id="E674">Ultimate Scenarios</EntityLink> section for details.

---

## Temporal Structure

These outcomes map to different phases of the AI transition:

| Phase | Primary Concern | Relevant Outcome |
|-------|-----------------|------------------|
| **Pre-transformative AI** (now) | Building capacity, avoiding racing | Existential Catastrophe (preparation) |
| **Existential Catastrophe Period** | Surviving the transition | Existential Catastrophe |
| **Resolution** | How it resolves | Both |
| **Long-run Trajectory** | Quality of the future | Long-term Trajectory |