Ultimate Outcomes
Ultimate Outcomes represent what we fundamentally care about when thinking about AI's impact on humanity. Unlike ScenariosE674The intermediate pathways connecting root factors to ultimate outcomes—AI Takeover, Human-Caused Catastrophe, and Long-term Lock-in. (which describe intermediate scenarios) or parameters (which measure specific factors), Ultimate Outcomes describe the final states we're trying to achieve or avoid.
There are two Ultimate Outcomes:
- Existential CatastropheAi Transition Model ScenarioExistential CatastropheThis page contains only a React component placeholder with no actual content visible for evaluation. The component would need to render content dynamically for assessment. — Does catastrophe occur?
- Long-term TrajectoryAi Transition Model ScenarioLong-term TrajectoryThis page contains only a React component reference with no actual content loaded. Cannot assess substance as no text, analysis, or information is present. — What's the expected value of the future?
The Two Outcomes
Why Two Outcomes?
A natural alternative would be three outcomes (adding something like "Transition Smoothness"). Two outcomes are preferable because:
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Transition turbulence is a pathway, not an endpoint: How rough the transition is affects both existential catastrophe and long-term trajectory. It belongs in Root FactorsE668Root factor measuring disruption during the AI transition. High turbulence increases risk across all scenarios..
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Cleaner analytical structure: Two outcomes are genuinely orthogonal:
- You can have low existential catastrophe but poor long-term trajectory (safe dystopia)
- You can have high existential catastrophe but good conditional value (high-stakes gamble)
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Temporal clarity: Existential Catastrophe is primarily about the transition period; Long-term Trajectory is about what comes after.
How They Relate
These outcomes are partially independent—you can have different combinations:
| Scenario | Existential Catastrophe | Long-term Trajectory | Example |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best case | Low | High | Aligned AI, smooth transition, flourishing |
| Safe dystopia | Low | Low | No catastrophe but authoritarian lock-in |
| High-stakes success | High (survived) | High | Near-misses but good outcome |
| Extinction | Very High | N/A | Catastrophe occurs |
This independence means:
- Different Ultimate Scenarios affect different Ultimate Outcomes
- Trade-offs exist: Some approaches that reduce existential catastrophe might worsen long-term trajectory (e.g., authoritarian control)
- Both matter: We shouldn't sacrifice one entirely for the other
How Ultimate Scenarios Flow to Ultimate Outcomes
Each ultimate scenario has sub-variants with different probability estimates. See the Ultimate ScenariosE674The intermediate pathways connecting root factors to ultimate outcomes—AI Takeover, Human-Caused Catastrophe, and Long-term Lock-in. section for details.
Temporal Structure
These outcomes map to different phases of the AI transition:
| Phase | Primary Concern | Relevant Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-transformative AI (now) | Building capacity, avoiding racing | Existential Catastrophe (preparation) |
| Existential Catastrophe Period | Surviving the transition | Existential Catastrophe |
| Resolution | How it resolves | Both |
| Long-run Trajectory | Quality of the future | Long-term Trajectory |