Long-term Lock-in

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{
  "numericId": "E673",
  "title": "Long-term Lock-in",
  "description": "Scenarios involving permanent entrenchment of values, power structures, or epistemic conditions.",
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---
numericId: E673
title: Long-term Lock-in
description: Scenarios involving permanent entrenchment of values, power structures, or epistemic conditions.
sidebar:
  label: Overview
  order: 0
lastEdited: "2026-01-03"
subcategory: scenarios-long-term-lockin
---
import {DataInfoBox, FactorSubItemsList, FactorRelationshipDiagram, ImpactList, EntityLink} from '@components/wiki';

<DataInfoBox entityId="E193" />

Long-term Lock-in refers to scenarios where AI enables the permanent entrenchment of certain conditions - whether values, power structures, or epistemic environments. Unlike acute catastrophes, <EntityLink id="E189">lock-in</EntityLink> may unfold gradually and may not be immediately recognized as harmful.

## Variants

<FactorSubItemsList factorId="long-term-lockin" />

## Key Root Factors

<FactorRelationshipDiagram nodeId="long-term-lockin" direction="incoming" />

### Model Estimates

<ImpactList nodeId="long-term-lockin" direction="to" compact={true} />

## Dual Nature

Unlike other scenarios, lock-in is not inherently negative:

| Pole | Description |
|------|-------------|
| **Positive** | Beneficial values and institutions stabilized, protected from degradation |
| **Negative** | Authoritarian control, harmful ideologies, or stagnation permanently entrenched |

## Outcomes

Long-term Lock-in primarily affects:
- **<EntityLink id="E194">Long-term Trajectory</EntityLink>**: The quality and character of the post-transition future
- May contribute to **<EntityLink id="E130">Existential Catastrophe</EntityLink>** if lock-in prevents course correction