Long-term Lock-in
Long-term Lock-in
Long-term Lock-in refers to scenarios where AI enables the permanent entrenchment of certain conditions - whether values, power structures, or epistemic environments. Unlike acute catastrophes, lock-inRiskAI Value Lock-inComprehensive analysis of AI lock-in scenarios where values, systems, or power structures become permanently entrenched. Documents evidence including Big Tech's 66-70% cloud control, AI surveillanc...Quality: 64/100 may unfold gradually and may not be immediately recognized as harmful.
Variants
Key Root Factors
Influenced by
Who controls and benefits from AI systems.
Overall capability level of frontier AI systems.
Society's ability to manage AI transition wisely.
Disruption during the AI transition period.
Model Estimates
Dual Nature
Unlike other scenarios, lock-in is not inherently negative:
| Pole | Description |
|---|---|
| Positive | Beneficial values and institutions stabilized, protected from degradation |
| Negative | Authoritarian control, harmful ideologies, or stagnation permanently entrenched |
Outcomes
Long-term Lock-in primarily affects:
- Long-term TrajectoryAi Transition Model ScenarioLong-term TrajectoryThis page contains only a React component reference with no actual content loaded. Cannot assess substance as no text, analysis, or information is present.: The quality and character of the post-transition future
- May contribute to Existential CatastropheAi Transition Model ScenarioExistential CatastropheThis page contains only a React component placeholder with no actual content visible for evaluation. The component would need to render content dynamically for assessment. if lock-in prevents course correction