Conjecture
Conjecture
Conjecture is a 30-40 person London-based AI safety org founded 2022, pursuing Cognitive Emulation (CoEm) - building interpretable AI from ground-up rather than aligning LLMs - with $30M+ Series A funding. Founded by Connor Leahy (EleutherAI), they face high uncertainty about CoEm competitiveness (3-5 year timeline) and commercial pressure risks.
Overview
Conjecture is an AI safety research organization founded in 2022 by Connor Leahy and a team of researchers concerned about existential risks from advanced AI. The organization pursues a distinctive technical approach centered on "Cognitive Emulation" (CoEm) - building interpretable AI systems based on human cognition principles rather than aligning existing large language models.
Based in London with a team of 30-40 researchers, Conjecture raised over $10M in Series A funding in 2023. Their research agenda emphasizes mechanistic interpretability and understanding neural network internals, representing a fundamental alternative to mainstream prosaic alignment approaches pursued by organizations like Anthropic and OpenAI.
| Aspect | Assessment | Evidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Technical Innovation | High | Novel CoEm research agenda | Conjecture Blog↗🔗 webConjecture - AI Safety Research BlogConjecture is a UK-based AI safety company pursuing the cognitive emulation research agenda; their blog is a primary source for understanding CoEm and related technical safety work.Conjecture is an AI safety research company focused on cognitive emulation (CoEm) as an approach to building aligned AI systems. Their blog covers technical AI safety research, ...ai-safetyalignmentinterpretabilitycognitive-emulation+3Source ↗ |
| Funding Security | Strong | $30M+ Series A (2023) | TechCrunch Reports↗🔗 web★★★☆☆TechCrunchTechCrunchTechCrunch is a general tech news site; it has minimal direct AI safety research value but may be useful for tracking mainstream coverage of AI governance and industry events. The current tags appear misattributed to this URL.TechCrunch is a major technology news outlet covering startups, industry trends, and emerging technologies. It occasionally reports on AI safety, alignment, and governance topic...ai-safetygovernancecapabilitiesdeployment+1Source ↗ |
| Research Output | Moderate | Selective publication strategy | Research Publications↗🔗 webResearch PublicationsThis is the research index page for Conjecture, a London-based AI safety startup; useful for tracking their evolving CoEm agenda and published cross-organizational alignment discussions, though individual linked papers carry more depth.Conjecture's research hub presents their primary safety agenda centered on Cognitive Emulation (CoEm), an AI architecture designed to bound system capabilities and make reasonin...ai-safetyalignmentinterpretabilitytechnical-safety+4Source ↗ |
| Influence | Growing | European AI policy engagement | UK AISI↗🏛️ government★★★★☆UK GovernmentAI Safety Institute - GOV.UKThis is the official UK government hub for AI safety policy and research; important for tracking state-level institutional responses to frontier AI risks and international safety coordination efforts.The UK AI Safety Institute (recently rebranded as the AI Security Institute) is a government body under the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology focused on minimizi...ai-safetygovernancepolicyevaluation+4Source ↗ |
Risk Assessment
| Risk Category | Severity | Likelihood | Timeline | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CoEm Uncompetitive | High | Moderate | 3-5 years | Uncertain |
| Commercial Pressure Compromise | Medium | High | 2-3 years | Worsening |
| Research Insularity | Low | Moderate | Ongoing | Stable |
| Funding Sustainability | Medium | Low | 5+ years | Improving |
Founding and Evolution
Origins (2022)
Conjecture emerged from the EleutherAI collective, an open-source AI research group that successfully recreated GPT-3 as open-source models (GPT-J, GPT-NeoX). Key founding factors:
| Factor | Impact | Details |
|---|---|---|
| EleutherAI Experience | High | Demonstrated capability replication feasibility |
| Safety Concerns | High | Recognition of risks from capability proliferation |
| European Gap | Medium | Limited AI safety ecosystem outside Bay Area |
| Funding Availability | Medium | Growing investor interest in AI safety |
Philosophical Evolution: The transition from EleutherAI's "democratize AI" mission to Conjecture's safety-focused approach represents a significant shift in thinking about AI development and publication strategies.
Funding Trajectory
| Year | Funding Stage | Amount | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Seed | Undisclosed | Initial team of ≈15 researchers |
| 2023 | Series A | $30M+ | Scaled to 30-40 researchers |
| 2024 | Operating | Ongoing | Sustained research operations |
Cognitive Emulation (CoEm) Research Agenda
No data available.
Core Philosophy
Conjecture's signature approach contrasts sharply with mainstream AI development:
| Approach | Philosophy | Methods | Evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prosaic Alignment | Train powerful LLMs, align post-hoc | RLHF, Constitutional AI | Behavioral testing |
| Cognitive Emulation | Build interpretable systems from ground up | Human cognition principles | Mechanistic understanding |
Key Research Components
Mechanistic Interpretability
- Circuit discovery in neural networks
- Feature attribution and visualization
- Scaling interpretability to larger models
- Interpretability research collaboration
Architecture Design
- Modular systems for better control
- Interpretability-first design choices
- Trading capabilities for understanding
- Novel training methodologies
Model Organisms
- Smaller, interpretable test systems
- Alignment property verification
- Deception detection research
- Goal representation analysis
Key Personnel
No data available.
Leadership Team
Connor Leahy Profile
| Aspect | Details |
|---|---|
| Background | EleutherAI collective member, GPT-J contributor |
| Evolution | From open-source advocacy to safety-focused research |
| Public Role | Active AI policy engagement, podcast appearances |
| Views | Short AI timelines, high P(doom), interpretability-necessary |
Timeline Estimates: Leahy has consistently expressed short AI timeline views, suggesting AGI within years rather than decades.
Research Focus Areas
Mechanistic Interpretability
| Research Area | Status | Key Questions |
|---|---|---|
| Circuit Analysis | Active | How do transformers implement reasoning? |
| Feature Extraction | Ongoing | What representations emerge in training? |
| Scaling Methods | Development | Can interpretability scale to AGI-level systems? |
| Goal Detection | Early | How can we detect goal-directedness mechanistically? |
Comparative Advantages
| Organization | Primary Focus | Interpretability Approach |
|---|---|---|
| Conjecture | CoEm, ground-up interpretability | Design-time interpretability |
| Anthropic | Frontier models + interpretability | Post-hoc analysis of LLMs |
| ARC | Theoretical alignment | Evaluation and ELK research |
| Redwood | AI control | Interpretability for control |
Strategic Position
Theory of Change
Conjecture's pathway to AI safety impact:
- Develop scalable interpretability techniques for powerful AI systems
- Demonstrate CoEm viability as competitive alternative to black-box scaling
- Influence field direction toward interpretability-first development
- Inform governance with technical feasibility insights
- Build safe systems using CoEm principles if successful
European AI Safety Hub
| Role | Impact | Examples |
|---|---|---|
| Geographic Diversity | High | Alternative to Bay Area concentration |
| Policy Engagement | Growing | UK AISI consultation |
| Talent Development | Moderate | European researcher recruitment |
| Community Building | Early | Workshops and collaborations |
Challenges and Criticisms
Technical Feasibility
| Challenge | Severity | Status |
|---|---|---|
| CoEm Competitiveness | High | Unresolved - early stage |
| Interpretability Scaling | High | Active research question |
| Human Cognition Complexity | Medium | Ongoing investigation |
| Timeline Alignment | High | Critical if AGI timelines short |
Organizational Tensions
Commercial Pressure vs Safety Mission
- VC funding creates return expectations
- Potential future deployment pressure
- Comparison to Anthropic's commercialization path
Publication Strategy Criticism
- Shift from EleutherAI's radical openness
- Selective research sharing decisions
- Balance between transparency and safety
Current Research Outputs
Published Work
| Type | Focus | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Technical Papers | Interpretability methods | Research community |
| Blog Posts | CoEm explanations | Public understanding |
| Policy Contributions | Technical feasibility | Governance decisions |
| Open Source Tools | Interpretability software | Research ecosystem |
Research Questions
Key Questions
- ?Can CoEm produce AI systems competitive with scaled LLMs?
- ?Is mechanistic interpretability sufficient for AGI safety verification?
- ?How will commercial pressures affect Conjecture's research direction?
- ?What role should interpretability play in AI governance frameworks?
- ?Can cognitive emulation bridge neuroscience and AI safety research?
- ?How does CoEm relate to other alignment approaches like Constitutional AI?
Timeline and Risk Estimates
Leadership Risk Assessments
Conjecture's leadership has articulated clear views on AI timelines and safety approaches, which fundamentally motivate their Cognitive Emulation research agenda and organizational strategy:
| Expert/Source | Estimate | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Leahy | AGI: 2-10 years | Leahy has consistently expressed short AI timeline views across multiple public statements and podcasts from 2023-2024, suggesting transformative AI systems could emerge within years rather than decades. These short timelines create urgency for developing interpretability-first approaches before AGI arrives. |
| Connor Leahy | P(doom): High without major changes | Leahy has expressed significant concern about the default trajectory of AI development in 2023 statements, arguing that prosaic alignment approaches pursued by frontier labs are insufficient to ensure safety. This pessimism about conventional alignment motivates Conjecture's alternative CoEm approach. |
| Conjecture Research | Prosaic alignment: Insufficient | The organization's core research direction reflects a fundamental assessment that post-hoc alignment of large language models through techniques like RLHF and Constitutional AI cannot provide adequate safety guarantees. This view, maintained since founding, drives their pursuit of interpretability-first system design. |
| Organization | Interpretability: Necessary for safety | Conjecture's founding premise holds that mechanistic interpretability is not merely useful but necessary for AI safety verification. This fundamental research assumption distinguishes them from organizations pursuing behavioral safety approaches and shapes their entire technical agenda. |
Future Scenarios
Research Trajectory Projections
| Timeline | Optimistic | Realistic | Pessimistic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 years | CoEm demonstrations, policy influence | Continued interpretability advances | Commercial pressure compromises |
| 3-5 years | Competitive interpretable systems | Mixed results, partial success | Research agenda stagnates |
| 5+ years | Field adoption of CoEm principles | Portfolio contribution to safety | Marginalized approach |
Critical Dependencies
| Factor | Importance | Uncertainty |
|---|---|---|
| Technical Feasibility | Critical | High - unproven at scale |
| Funding Continuity | High | Medium - VC expectations |
| AGI Timeline | Critical | High - if very short, insufficient time |
| Field Receptivity | Medium | Medium - depends on results |
Relationships and Collaborations
Within AI Safety Ecosystem
| Organization | Relationship | Collaboration Type |
|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | Friendly competition | Interpretability research sharing |
| ARC | Complementary | Different technical approaches |
| MIRI | Aligned concerns | Skepticism of prosaic alignment |
| Academic Labs | Collaborative | Interpretability technique development |
Policy and Governance
UK Engagement
- UK AI Safety Institute consultation
- Technical feasibility assessments
- European AI Act discussions
International Influence
- Growing presence in global AI safety discussions
- Alternative perspective to US-dominated discourse
- Technical grounding for governance approaches
Sources & Resources
Primary Sources
| Type | Source | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Official Website | Conjecture.dev↗🔗 webConjecture - AI Safety Research BlogConjecture is a UK-based AI safety company pursuing the cognitive emulation research agenda; their blog is a primary source for understanding CoEm and related technical safety work.Conjecture is an AI safety research company focused on cognitive emulation (CoEm) as an approach to building aligned AI systems. Their blog covers technical AI safety research, ...ai-safetyalignmentinterpretabilitycognitive-emulation+3Source ↗ | Research updates, team information |
| Research Papers | Google Scholar↗🔗 web★★★★☆Google ScholarGoogle Scholar Profile - Conjecture (AI Safety Research)This is a Google Scholar profile page for Conjecture, an AI safety organization; the page requires authentication to view publications, making it a limited reference for tracking their research output on cognitive emulation and interpretability.This appears to be a Google Scholar citations profile page for Conjecture, an AI safety research organization focused on cognitive emulation and interpretability. The page requi...ai-safetyalignmentinterpretabilitycognitive-emulation+1Source ↗ | Technical publications |
| Blog Posts | Conjecture Blog↗🔗 webConjecture Blog (Research & Updates)This URL is a broken link (404); the Conjecture blog has moved to conjecture.dev/research. Conjecture is an AI safety company known for cognitive emulation (CoEm) research and interpretability work. Update any links pointing here.This URL returns a 404 error, indicating the Conjecture blog has moved or been restructured. Conjecture is an AI safety company focused on cognitive emulation and interpretabili...ai-safetyinterpretabilitytechnical-safetyalignment+1Source ↗ | Research explanations, philosophy |
| Interviews | Connor Leahy Talks↗🎙️ talk★★☆☆☆YouTubeConnor Leahy AI Safety Talks (YouTube Collection)This is a YouTube search results page, not a specific talk; users should navigate to individual videos. Connor Leahy's talks are relevant to existential risk, alignment strategy, and the CogEm approach developed at Conjecture.A YouTube search results page aggregating talks and interviews by Connor Leahy, co-founder of EleutherAI and CEO of Conjecture, on AI safety topics. Leahy is a prominent voice w...ai-safetyexistential-riskalignmentgovernance+4Source ↗ | Leadership perspectives |
Secondary Analysis
| Type | Source | Focus |
|---|---|---|
| AI Safety Analysis | LessWrong Posts↗✏️ blog★★★☆☆LessWrongConjecture - LessWrong Tag PageThis LessWrong tag page collects posts associated with Conjecture, an alignment-focused organization known for the cognitive emulation (CogEm) research agenda; useful for tracking their published ideas and community discussions.This is the LessWrong tag page aggregating posts related to Conjecture, an AI safety research organization focused on cognitive emulation (CogEm) and interpretability approaches...ai-safetyalignmentinterpretabilitytechnical-safety+1Source ↗ | Community discussion |
| Technical Reviews | Alignment Forum↗✏️ blog★★★☆☆Alignment ForumAI Alignment ForumThe AI Alignment Forum is the primary online community for technical AI safety research; the featured post represents foundational agent-foundations work questioning utility function orthodoxy in decision theory.The AI Alignment Forum is a central community platform for technical AI safety and alignment research discussion. The featured post argues against 'reductive utility' (utility f...alignmentai-safetytechnical-safetydecision-theory+1Source ↗ | Research evaluation |
| Policy Reports | GovAI Analysis↗🏛️ government★★★★☆Centre for the Governance of AIGovAI helps decision-makers navigate the transition to a world with advanced AI, by producing rigorous research and fostering talent." name="description"/><meta content="GovAI | HomeGovAI is one of the most prominent AI governance research organizations globally; their publications on AI policy, international coordination, and existential risk governance are frequently cited in AI safety literature and policy discussions.The Centre for the Governance of AI (GovAI) is a leading research organization dedicated to helping decision-makers navigate the transition to a world with advanced AI. It produ...governanceai-safetypolicyexistential-risk+4Source ↗ | Governance implications |
| Funding News | TechCrunch Coverage↗🔗 web★★★☆☆TechCrunchTechCrunch Tag Page: ConjectureThis TechCrunch tag page was likely intended to aggregate coverage of Conjecture (the AI safety/cognitive emulation research organization), but the visible content shows only unrelated older hardware articles, making it a low-value reference for the wiki.This is a TechCrunch tag aggregation page for 'conjecture,' but based on the visible content it appears to contain only unrelated older hardware articles (MacBooks, gPhone) rath...ai-safetyalignmentSource ↗ | Business developments |
Related Resources
| Topic | Internal Links | External Resources |
|---|---|---|
| Interpretability | Technical Interpretability | Anthropic Interpretability↗📄 paper★★★★☆Transformer CircuitsTransformer Circuits ThreadThis is the canonical landing page for Anthropic's mechanistic interpretability research program; it serves as an index to all Transformer Circuits papers and updates and is essential reading for anyone studying AI internals for safety purposes.The Transformer Circuits Thread is Anthropic's primary publication hub for mechanistic interpretability research on large language models. It hosts foundational and ongoing rese...interpretabilityai-safetytechnical-safetyanthropic+3Source ↗ |
| Alignment Approaches | Why Alignment is Hard | AI Alignment Forum↗✏️ blog★★★☆☆Alignment ForumAI Alignment ForumThe AI Alignment Forum is the primary online community for technical AI safety research; the featured post represents foundational agent-foundations work questioning utility function orthodoxy in decision theory.The AI Alignment Forum is a central community platform for technical AI safety and alignment research discussion. The featured post argues against 'reductive utility' (utility f...alignmentai-safetytechnical-safetydecision-theory+1Source ↗ |
| European AI Policy | UK AISI | EU AI Office↗🔗 web★★★★☆European UnionEU AI Office - European CommissionThe EU AI Office is a key regulatory institution for AI safety practitioners and developers operating in Europe; its mandates and guidelines directly shape how frontier AI models must be evaluated and deployed under the EU AI Act framework.The EU AI Office is the European Commission's central body responsible for overseeing and implementing the EU AI Act, particularly for general-purpose AI models. It coordinates ...governancepolicyai-safetydeployment+3Source ↗ |
| Related Orgs | Safety Organizations | AI Safety Community↗🔗 webAISafety.info – AI Safety Resource HubAISafety.info is a community-maintained hub ideal for newcomers seeking structured overviews of AI safety concepts, and for practitioners looking for a curated index of key ideas and resources across technical and governance domains.AISafety.info is a community hub providing accessible introductions, explainers, and curated resources on AI safety topics. It serves as an entry point for those new to the fiel...ai-safetyalignmentinterpretabilityexistential-risk+4Source ↗ |
References
This appears to be a Google Scholar citations profile page for Conjecture, an AI safety research organization focused on cognitive emulation and interpretability. The page requires authentication to view full citation details, limiting direct access to research metrics and publication lists.
Conjecture's research hub presents their primary safety agenda centered on Cognitive Emulation (CoEm), an AI architecture designed to bound system capabilities and make reasoning interpretable and controllable. Rather than directly solving alignment for AGI, they propose building predictably boundable intermediate systems as a simpler near-term step. The page indexes key publications including their foundational CoEm proposal, a roadmap for 'Cognitive Software,' and cross-organizational alignment discussions.
The AI Alignment Forum is a central community platform for technical AI safety and alignment research discussion. The featured post argues against 'reductive utility' (utility functions over possible worlds) and proposes the Jeffrey-Bolker framework as an alternative that avoids ontological crises and computability constraints by grounding preferences in agent-relative events rather than universal physics.
This is a TechCrunch tag aggregation page for 'conjecture,' but based on the visible content it appears to contain only unrelated older hardware articles (MacBooks, gPhone) rather than content about Conjecture, the AI safety organization. The page does not surface meaningful AI safety coverage.
This URL returns a 404 error, indicating the Conjecture blog has moved or been restructured. Conjecture is an AI safety company focused on cognitive emulation and interpretability research. Their content is now accessible via their research page at conjecture.dev/research.
A YouTube search results page aggregating talks and interviews by Connor Leahy, co-founder of EleutherAI and CEO of Conjecture, on AI safety topics. Leahy is a prominent voice warning about existential risks from advanced AI systems and advocates for strong alignment research and governance measures. The collection covers his views on AI risk, alignment strategies, and the urgency of solving safety before AGI.
The UK AI Safety Institute (recently rebranded as the AI Security Institute) is a government body under the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology focused on minimizing risks from rapid and unexpected AI advances. It conducts and publishes safety research, international coordination reports, and policy guidance, while managing grants for systemic AI safety research.
AISafety.info is a community hub providing accessible introductions, explainers, and curated resources on AI safety topics. It serves as an entry point for those new to the field as well as a reference for practitioners, covering technical safety, alignment concepts, and related research areas.
TechCrunch is a major technology news outlet covering startups, industry trends, and emerging technologies. It occasionally reports on AI safety, alignment, and governance topics as they intersect with the broader tech industry.
Conjecture is an AI safety research company focused on cognitive emulation (CoEm) as an approach to building aligned AI systems. Their blog covers technical AI safety research, interpretability, and alignment strategies with a particular emphasis on making AI systems that reason more like humans in interpretable ways.
This is the LessWrong tag page aggregating posts related to Conjecture, an AI safety research organization focused on cognitive emulation (CogEm) and interpretability approaches to alignment. Conjecture's work explores building AI systems whose reasoning processes are understandable and human-like rather than opaque.
The Centre for the Governance of AI (GovAI) is a leading research organization dedicated to helping decision-makers navigate the transition to a world with advanced AI. It produces rigorous research on AI governance, policy, and societal impacts, while fostering a global talent pipeline for responsible AI oversight. GovAI bridges technical AI safety concerns with practical policy recommendations.
The EU AI Office is the European Commission's central body responsible for overseeing and implementing the EU AI Act, particularly for general-purpose AI models. It coordinates AI governance across member states, enforces compliance with AI safety requirements, and supports the development of AI standards and testing methodologies.