Forecasting Research Institute — AI Forecasting Project

[Forecasting] Open Philanthropy recommended a grant of $150,000 to the Forecasting Research Institute to support a project that will bring together forecasters who disagree about the magnitude of AI existential risk to discuss and make predictions about AI, with the goal of identifying key views and arguments driving their forecasts and disagreements. The participants will include some “superforecasters” (people with a strong track record of making accurate predictions) and some AI subject-matter experts, among others. This falls within our focus area of potential risks from advanced artificial intelligence.