Forecasting Research Institute (FRI)
AcademicResearch institute advancing forecasting methodology through large-scale tournaments and rigorous experiments, led by Philip Tetlock.
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Philip Tetlock
Psychologist and forecasting researcher who pioneered the science of superforecasting through the Good Judgment Project, demonstrating that systema...
XPT (Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament)
A four-month structured forecasting tournament (June-October 2022) that brought together 169 participants—89 superforecasters and 80 domain experts...
ForecastBench
A dynamic, contamination-free benchmark for evaluating large language model forecasting capabilities, published at ICLR 2025.
Epistemic & Forecasting Organizations (Overview)
Organizations advancing forecasting methodology, prediction aggregation, and epistemic infrastructure to improve decision-making on AI safety and e...
Metaculus
Metaculus is a reputation-based prediction aggregation platform that has become the primary source for AI timeline forecasts.