Conjecture is an AI safety research organization founded in 2022 by Connor Leahy and a team of researchers concerned about existential risks from advanced AI.
Prosaic AlignmentSafety AgendaProsaic AlignmentAligning AI systems using current deep learning techniques without fundamental new paradigms0Anthropic Core ViewsSafety AgendaAnthropic Core ViewsAnthropic allocates 15-25% of R&D (~$100-200M annually) to safety research including the world's largest interpretability team (40-60 researchers), while maintaining $5B+ revenue by 2025. Their RSP...Quality: 62/100
Approaches
AI AlignmentApproachAI AlignmentComprehensive review of AI alignment approaches finding current methods (RLHF, Constitutional AI) show 75%+ effectiveness on measurable safety metrics for existing systems but face critical scalabi...Quality: 91/100AI EvaluationApproachAI EvaluationComprehensive overview of AI evaluation methods spanning dangerous capability assessment, safety properties, and deception detection, with categorized frameworks from industry (Anthropic Constituti...Quality: 72/100AI Safety Training ProgramsApproachAI Safety Training ProgramsComprehensive guide to AI safety training programs including MATS (78% alumni in alignment work, 100+ scholars annually), Anthropic Fellows ($2,100/week stipend, 40%+ hired full-time), LASR Labs (5...Quality: 70/100Constitutional AIApproachConstitutional AIConstitutional AI is Anthropic's methodology using explicit principles and AI-generated feedback (RLAIF) to train safer models, achieving 3-10x improvements in harmlessness while maintaining helpfu...Quality: 70/100
Analysis
Model Organisms of MisalignmentAnalysisModel Organisms of MisalignmentModel organisms of misalignment is a research agenda creating controlled AI systems exhibiting specific alignment failures as testbeds. Recent work achieves 99% coherence with 40% misalignment rate...Quality: 65/100Capability-Alignment Race ModelAnalysisCapability-Alignment Race ModelQuantifies the capability-alignment race showing capabilities currently ~3 years ahead of alignment readiness, with gap widening at 0.5 years/year driven by 10²⁶ FLOP scaling vs. 15% interpretabili...Quality: 62/100
Other
Vidur KapurPersonVidur KapurVidur Kapur is a superforecaster and AI policy researcher involved in multiple forecasting organizations and the Sentinel early warning system, contributing to AI risk assessment and EA Forum discu...Quality: 38/100AI ControlResearch AreaAI ControlAI Control is a defensive safety approach that maintains control over potentially misaligned AI through monitoring, containment, and redundancy, offering 40-60% catastrophic risk reduction if align...Quality: 75/100InterpretabilityResearch AreaInterpretabilityMechanistic interpretability has extracted 34M+ interpretable features from Claude 3 Sonnet with 90% automated labeling accuracy and demonstrated 75-85% success in causal validation, though less th...Quality: 66/100
Key Debates
Why Alignment Might Be HardArgumentWhy Alignment Might Be HardA comprehensive taxonomy of alignment difficulty arguments spanning specification problems, inner alignment failures, verification limits, and adversarial dynamics, with expert p(doom) estimates ra...Quality: 69/100AI Alignment Research AgendasCruxAI Alignment Research AgendasComprehensive comparison of major AI safety research agendas ($100M+ Anthropic, $50M+ DeepMind, $5-10M nonprofits) with detailed funding, team sizes, and failure mode coverage (25-65% per agenda). ...Quality: 69/100Technical AI Safety ResearchCruxTechnical AI Safety ResearchTechnical AI safety research encompasses six major agendas (mechanistic interpretability, scalable oversight, AI control, evaluations, agent foundations, and robustness) with 500+ researchers and $...Quality: 66/100
Concepts
Large Language ModelsCapabilityLarge Language ModelsComprehensive analysis of LLM capabilities showing rapid progress from GPT-2 (1.5B parameters, 2019) to GPT-5 and Gemini 2.5 (2025), with training costs growing 2.4x annually and projected to excee...Quality: 60/100AGI TimelineConceptAGI TimelineComprehensive synthesis of AGI timeline forecasts showing dramatic acceleration: expert median dropped from 2061 (2018) to 2047 (2023), Metaculus from 50 years to 5 years since 2020, with current p...Quality: 59/100Safety Orgs OverviewSafety Orgs OverviewA well-organized reference overview of ~20 AI safety organizations categorized by function (alignment research, policy, field-building), with a comparative budget/headcount table showing estimated ...Quality: 48/100
Organizations
OpenAIOrganizationOpenAIComprehensive organizational profile of OpenAI documenting evolution from 2015 non-profit to Public Benefit Corporation, with detailed analysis of governance crisis, 2024-2025 ownership restructuri...Quality: 62/100
Risks
AI ProliferationRiskAI ProliferationAI proliferation accelerated dramatically as the capability gap narrowed from 18 to 6 months (2022-2024), with open-source models like DeepSeek R1 now matching frontier performance. US export contr...Quality: 60/100Deceptive AlignmentRiskDeceptive AlignmentComprehensive analysis of deceptive alignment risk where AI systems appear aligned during training but pursue different goals when deployed. Expert probability estimates range 5-90%, with key empir...Quality: 75/100