AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
activeQuarterly competition run by Metaculus comparing human Pro Forecasters against AI forecasting bots.
Organizations
5| Metaculus | Reputation-based prediction aggregation platform that has become the primary source for AI timeline forecasts, with over 1 million predictions across 15,000+ questions. Created by Anthony Aguirre (FLI/FLF President). |
| Anthropic | Anthropic is an AI safety company founded in January 2021 by former OpenAI researchers, including siblings Dario and Daniela Amodei. The company was created following disagreements with OpenAI's direction, particularly concerns about the pace of commercialization and the shift toward Microsoft partnership. |
| OpenAI | OpenAI is the AI research company that brought large language models into mainstream consciousness through ChatGPT. Founded in December 2015 as a non-profit with the mission to ensure artificial general intelligence benefits all of humanity, OpenAI has undergone dramatic evolution - from non-profit to "capped-profit," from research lab to produc... |
| Coefficient Giving | Coefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy) has directed $4B+ in grants since 2014, including $336M to AI safety (~60% of external funding). The organization spent ~$50M on AI safety in 2024, with 68% going to evaluations/benchmarking, and launched a $40M Technical AI Safety RFP in 2025 covering 8 research areas. |
| Good Judgment (Forecasting) | Good Judgment Inc. is a commercial forecasting organization that emerged from successful IARPA research, demonstrating that trained 'superforecasters' can outperform intelligence analysts and prediction markets by 30-72%. While not directly focused on AI safety, their methodology for identifying forecasters and improving collective judgment has significant implications for AI risk assessment. |
Related Projects
3| ForecastBench | Dynamic, contamination-free benchmark for evaluating LLM forecasting capabilities, published at ICLR 2025. |
| XPT (Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament) | Four-month structured forecasting tournament bringing together superforecasters and domain experts through adversarial collaboration. |
| Metaforecast | Forecast aggregation platform combining predictions from 10+ sources into a unified search interface. |
Related Wiki Pages
Top Related Pages
ForecastBench
A dynamic, contamination-free benchmark for evaluating large language model forecasting capabilities, published at ICLR 2025.
Metaculus
Metaculus is a reputation-based prediction aggregation platform that has become the primary source for AI timeline forecasts.
AI-Augmented Forecasting
Combining AI capabilities with human judgment for better predictions about future events, achieving measurable accuracy improvements while addressi...
Anthropic
An AI safety company founded by former OpenAI researchers that develops frontier AI models while pursuing safety research, including the Claude mod...
OpenAI
Leading AI lab that developed GPT models and ChatGPT, analyzing organizational evolution from non-profit research to commercial AGI development ami...