XPT (Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament)
activeFour-month structured forecasting tournament bringing together superforecasters and domain experts through adversarial collaboration.
Organizations
4| Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) | Research institute advancing forecasting methodology through large-scale tournaments and rigorous experiments, led by Philip Tetlock. |
| Good Judgment (Forecasting) | Good Judgment Inc. is a commercial forecasting organization that emerged from successful IARPA research, demonstrating that trained 'superforecasters' can outperform intelligence analysts and prediction markets by 30-72%. While not directly focused on AI safety, their methodology for identifying forecasters and improving collective judgment has significant implications for AI risk assessment. |
| Metaculus | Reputation-based prediction aggregation platform that has become the primary source for AI timeline forecasts, with over 1 million predictions across 15,000+ questions. Created by Anthony Aguirre (FLI/FLF President). |
| Coefficient Giving | Coefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy) has directed $4B+ in grants since 2014, including $336M to AI safety (~60% of external funding). The organization spent ~$50M on AI safety in 2024, with 68% going to evaluations/benchmarking, and launched a $40M Technical AI Safety RFP in 2025 covering 8 research areas. |
People
1| Philip Tetlock | Psychologist and forecasting researcher who pioneered the science of superforecasting through the Good Judgment Project, demonstrating that systematic forecasting methods can outperform expert predictions and intelligence analysts. |
Related Projects
2| ForecastBench | Dynamic, contamination-free benchmark for evaluating LLM forecasting capabilities, published at ICLR 2025. |
| AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament | Quarterly competition run by Metaculus comparing human Pro Forecasters against AI forecasting bots. |
Related Wiki Pages
Top Related Pages
Forecasting Research Institute (FRI)
The Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) advances forecasting methodology through large-scale tournaments and rigorous experiments.
ForecastBench
A dynamic, contamination-free benchmark for evaluating large language model forecasting capabilities, published at ICLR 2025.
Philip Tetlock
Psychologist and forecasting researcher who pioneered the science of superforecasting through the Good Judgment Project, demonstrating that systema...
Good Judgment (Forecasting)
A forecasting organization that identifies and employs 'superforecasters' for geopolitical and strategic predictions, emerging from IARPA research ...
Metaculus
Metaculus is a reputation-based prediction aggregation platform that has become the primary source for AI timeline forecasts.
Organizations
Approaches
Concepts
Key Facts
- Founded Date
- 2022
- Founded By
- Forecasting Research Institute (FRI)