AI Impacts

web

Credibility Rating

3/5

Good(3)

Good quality. Reputable source with community review or editorial standards, but less rigorous than peer-reviewed venues.

Rating inherited from publication venue: AI Impacts

AI Impacts is a key empirical research hub for AI safety; its expert surveys and wiki pages are frequently cited in discussions about AI timelines, risk probability, and strategic forecasting within the broader AI safety community.

Metadata

Importance: 72/100homepage

Summary

AI Impacts is a research organization that investigates empirical questions relevant to AI forecasting and safety, including AI timelines, discontinuous progress risks, and existential risk arguments. It maintains a wiki and blog featuring expert surveys, historical analyses, and structured arguments about transformative AI development. Notable outputs include periodic expert surveys on AI progress timelines.

Key Points

•Hosts the 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI, a large-scale survey of 2778 ML researchers on timelines and risk
•Maintains a wiki covering AI existential risk arguments, timeline predictions, and responses to AI development
•Analyzes likelihood of discontinuous progress around AGI development using historical technology analogies
•Investigates whether transformative AI technologies are inevitable, including cases of incentivized technologies not pursued
•Affiliated with FLI, MIRI, and FHI, representing a core node in the AI safety research ecosystem

Cited by 8 pages

Page	Type	Quality
AGI Timeline	Concept	59.0
AI Risk Portfolio Analysis	Analysis	64.0
AI Compounding Risks Analysis Model	Analysis	60.0
Deceptive Alignment Decomposition Model	Analysis	62.0
International AI Coordination Game Model	Analysis	59.0
AI Safety Research Value Model	Analysis	60.0
AI Impacts	Organization	53.0
Epoch AI	Organization	51.0

Cached Content Preview

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## [Wiki](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/)

[![](https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/AII-wiki-logo-v3.png)](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/)

The wiki replaces old AI Impacts pages. Old pages are still up, but for up to date content see [**wiki**](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=start) versions.

## Featured wiki pages

[![](https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ce8dfb8d-83ec-453b-8dd2-3609565338b7_2544x1274-e1704396504798-1024x402.webp)](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai) 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI[![](https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/dimitry-anikin-emM2IOQctzc-unsplash-1024x683.jpg)](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=featured_articles:fiction_relevant_to_ai_futurism) Fiction relevant to AI futurism[![](https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/andreas-brunn-Cw3To2Te3Xk-unsplash-1-1011x1024.jpg)](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=arguments_for_ai_risk:is_ai_an_existential_threat_to_humanity:start) Is AI an existential risk to humanity?[![](https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/bright-celebration-colors-634697-1-1024x683.jpg)](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=featured_articles:likelihood_of_discontinuous_progress_around_the_development_of_agi) Likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI[![](https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/frederic-paulussen-LWnD8U2OReU-unsplash-1024x678.jpg)](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=responses_to_ai:technological_inevitability:incentivized_technologies_not_pursued:start) Incentivized technologies not pursued

## [Blog](https://blog.aiimpacts.org/)

[![](https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Image-square-1.jpg)](https://blog.aiimpacts.org/p/2023-ai-survey-of-2778-six-things)

- [FAQ: Expert Survey on Progress in AI methodology](https://blog.aiimpacts.org/p/faq-expert-survey-on-progress-in)
2025-10-31by Katja Grace
Context

- [Reanalyzing the 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI](https://blog.aiimpacts.org/p/reanalyzing-the-2023-expert-survey)
2024-12-15by Ben Weinstein-Raun
With new charts, and a newly open-source codebase

- [Winners of the Essay competition on the Automation of Wisdom and Philosophy](https://blog.aiimpacts.org/p/winners-of-the-essay-competition)
2024-10-28by Owen Cotton-Barratt
We’re delighted to announce the winners of the Essay competition on the Automation of Wisdom and Philosophy.


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