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AGI Timelines Dashboard
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Useful reference for tracking crowd-sourced and prediction-market estimates of AGI timelines; relevant for researchers and policymakers assessing near-term AI development risk horizons, though forecasting accuracy for transformative AI remains highly uncertain.
Metadata
Importance: 45/100tool pagetool
Summary
An interactive dashboard aggregating and visualizing AGI timeline forecasts from major prediction markets and forecasting platforms including Metaculus, Manifold Markets, and Kalshi. It displays median year predictions and probability distributions for milestones such as 'weakly general AI,' 'general AI,' and passing the Turing Test, allowing users to download underlying data.
Key Points
- •Aggregates AGI timeline forecasts from Metaculus, Manifold Markets, and Kalshi into a single visual dashboard
- •Tracks multiple milestones: weakly general AI, general AI, and passing a difficult adversarial Turing Test
- •Displays median year predictions and probability distributions with options for linear and log scale views
- •Includes a specific Kalshi market tracking the probability AI passes the Turing Test before 2030
- •Data is downloadable, enabling independent analysis of crowd-sourced AGI arrival estimates
Cited by 5 pages
| Page | Type | Quality |
|---|---|---|
| AGI Development | -- | 52.0 |
| AGI Timeline | Concept | 59.0 |
| AI Timelines | Concept | 95.0 |
| Manifold (Prediction Market) | Organization | 43.0 |
| Metaculus | Organization | 50.0 |
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HTTP 200Fetched Feb 26, 20261002 KB
When Will We Get AGI? | AGI Timelines Dashboard AGI Timeline Forecasts Median year predictions from multiple forecasting sources. Data sources: Metaculus , Manifold , Kalshi Download data 2060 Full Log Linear Individual Forecasts: Date of "weakly general AI" - Metaculus From the forecasting site Metaculus, full title: "When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?" Metaculus Prediction (Year) Source: Metaculus Download data 2060 Full Log Linear Date of "general AI" - Metaculus From the forecasting site Metaculus, full title: "When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?" Metaculus Prediction (Year) Source: Metaculus Download data 2060 Full Log Linear Date of AI passing "difficult Turing Test" - Metaculus From the forecasting site Metaculus, full title: "When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?" Metaculus Prediction (Year) Source: Metaculus Download data 2060 Full Log Linear When will AGI arrive? (Manifold Markets Distribution) From the prediction market Manifold Markets, full title: "AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]" Manifold Prediction (Year) Source: Manifold Markets Download data 2060 Full Log Linear Will AI pass the Turing Test before 2030? (Kalshi) From the prediction market Kalshi. Shows probability (0-100%) that AI passes the Turing test before 2030. Kalshi Prediction (% before 2030) Source: Kalshi Download data
Resource ID:
62e56523995e761b | Stable ID: Y2ZiYWYwYj